Saturday, November 11, 2006

Now what?

As I write this, we've seen #3 Louisville, #5 Auburn, and #8 California lose. #6 Texas is losing by 10 points in the 4th Quarter to lowly Kansas State.

This will clarify and muddle the CFB playoff picture simultaneouly.

Obviously, the teams above are the big losers, but who's going to benefit?

(I'm not even bothering to mention the Big 10 - Ohio State and Michigan will get enough hype next week.)

Florida: Held off South Carolina today with a blocked FG at the gun to remain in the one loss club. They finish with Western Carolina (??), Florida State, and the SEC championship against Arkansas. Sweeping all of those games, which would include two ranked teams, will help their case immensely. However, it's not as strong as........

USC: They have got the toughest closing stretch left - Cal, Notre Dame, and UCLA. Their slip-up to Oregon State notwithstanding, this might be enough to get to Glendale if they run the table. They're winning 14-0 tonight against Oregon.

West Virginia: If they take out Rutgers next week, everyone benefits. I think, though, that no one from the Big East has a chance, so they all beat up each other and played nobody from any other power conference. No chance since they lost to Louisville. COnsidering I picked them before the season....thanks a lot.

Notre Dame: Aside from Michigan, Georgia Tech and USC, it's really a creampuff schedule. They got killed by Michigan, barely beat Tech, and will probably get killed by USC.

Arkansas: The team no one talks about is moving up 4 spots this week, and beat Tennessee convincingly. If they run the table (MSU, LSU, FLA) then they've got some BIG marquee wins on their schedule.

Boise State/Rutgers: No. I know they have no losses, but no. They will be in the top 12 tomorrow, but neither of them has any chance of playing in Glendale.

So, this means it'll either be USC or the SEC champ. I'm sick and tired of the goddamn Trojans, and I think it'll be the SEC champ as payback for the snub of Auburn a few years ago.

UPDATE: Texas loses 45-42. Today's earthquake is complete.


Big Daddy Jeff said...

Good analysis. Can't find anything I disagree with in it. The thing I like about the Florida win (whether or not the voters consider it) is that it's not like the SC kicker choked and missed those kicks -- both the XP and the game winning FG. Florida actually went out there and blocked both kicks and said NO WAY. You just don't see that a lot.

I agree about USC possibly getting style points. But with Cal's loss, that win would be a little less impressive and the PAC 10 doesn't have a championship game. So edge to SEC champ.

There's no reason I should be after seeing Wake Forest SHUT OUT Florida State in the Doak, but I'm still scared of that game possibly being overlooked by the Gators with the SEC championship on the horizon. This very thing happened to Spurrier's teams so many times over the years. They'd be thinking SEC championship and let their guard down to always dangerous Bowden teams. Still, this year there would be no excuse for losing to the Noles. We'll see.

paul zummo said...

Notre Dame is out, I think. Even if they run the table, there is no way they deserve a shot in the title game if Michigan loses considering that Michigan clobbered them earlier this year. And if Michigan wins, there would be a lot more justification for an Ohio State-Michigan rematch than a Notre Dame-Michigan rematch. So I think it's pretty much between Florida, USC, and the loser of the Michigan-Ohio State game.