Saturday, May 13, 2006

Will Anyone Ever Get 300 Wins?

Tom Glavine just notched his 280th win. Assuming he ends up with 13 wins this year and next year, he will pass 300 wins next year.

That could be the last one we see for a very long time. Who else might be able to scale the mountain to 300?

Here's some possible candidates:

1) Randy Johnson (268) - He's 42 years old and 32 wins away. If he stops posting a 5 ERA, he could hit the mark in 2008, maybe late 2007. Considering how he has been lately, though, I'm starting to think it may be harder than it sounds. VOTE: NO

2) Mike Mussina (230) - Was 37 when the season started and had 224 wins - he's notched six more this year. He's looking pretty strong this year, and with at least three more years in pinstripes, he'll be really close when it's time for his next deal. He's not a traditional power pitcher, so he can eke some more time out of his arsenal unlike Johnson. VOTE: YES

3) Pedro Martinez (202) - Injuries can knock him out any time. He hasn't been as durable as the first two guys. He is only 35, but he's got to stay healthy and his prior history doesn't' lead me to think he will. VOTE: NO

4) Andy Pettitte (174) - 33 years old, so he may have 8-10 seasons left. But injury threats and ballpark factors lead me to think it isn't happening. VOTE: NO

5) Curt Schilling (197) - I had to drop down this far on the all-time listing to find him. While others have more wins, they are almost or have already passed 40 and have no chance (Smoltz, Rogers, Moyer). I really thought he had more wins, but I guess not. Why do I mention this? Because Curt will turn 40 in November. VOTE: NO

Any young pitchers that are possibilities? Figure if they have 50 wins by 27 or 100 wins by 30, they have a chance. Let's see:

1) Tim Hudson, ATL: 30 years old, 109 wins. If he stays a Brave for the next 12 years, it's quite possible. If he wants to pitch that long. VOTE: NO

2) Johan Santana, MIN: 27 years old, 63 wins. I don't think it matters where he pitches as long as he stays healthy, not with his repertoire - he'll get to 300 before the heat disappears. VOTE: YES

3) Bartolo Colon, LAA: 32 years old, 139 wins. He will not avoid injuries or buffet tables long enough to get there. VOTE: NO

4) Barry Zito, OAK: 27 years old, 88 wins. If he keeps pitching in pitchers' parks, that will help. He doesn't throw hard so he could hang on for a while like Glavine has. VOTE: YES

5) Roy Oswalt, HOU: 28 years old, 88 wins. He may be doing OK now, but no one is winning 20 games consistently in Houston's ballpark to get to this mark. VOTE: NO

6) Mark Mulder, STL: 28 years old, 101 wins. He may have 150 before he turns 30. Even with missing the equivalent of a whole season, he would have plenty of time to recover. With a perennially strong Cardinals team supporting him, and a good ballpark to pitch in, this might be the easiest call of the young pitchers. VOTE: YES

It seems a bit early to lament about the demise of the 300-win pitcher. Considering one comes about every 5-10 years, and there are several possibilities to get there over the next 15 years, I'm pretty sure we'll see one, and probably more.


Big Daddy Jeff said...

Wow! I had no idea Moose had that many wins. He's always steady, but never spectacular. He's had an overlooked career, despite pitching 6 years in New York.

Maybe he ends up another Don Sutton? But I'm not sure I'd even put him on that level. Different eras, to be sure, but Sutton had 8 seasons with sub 3.00 ERA's, including very impressive 2.08 and 2.20 campaigns.

- Moose has never won 20 games, granted he has come very close many times.

- Only has had an ERA under 3.00 in 1 full season, and it was his first.

- Has had 5 years with over 4.00 ERA's. Yet in those 5 years, he totalled 76 wins for an average of 15+. Meaning he has gotten superb run support.

I guess I'd say Moose is likely to be borderline HOF but he still has a lot of work to do.

If Bert Blyleven isn't a HOF (doesn't look like he's gonna make it), then I'd pass on Moose too, unless he gets the magic 300, which is possible.

Francase said...

You know, until I crunched the numbers, I had no idea Mussina was within striking distance.

If he gets to 300, that means he's had at least three more above-average seasons and would get into the Hall i.e. Don Sutton, but if he doesn't make it, I am not sure he would suffer the same fate as Blyleven, especially if no one else has made it to 300 by the time he is eligible.

Which, based on my post, I'm thinking someone else will get there. So, he needs to make it to get in.