Wednesday, May 10, 2006

Could Derek Jeter pass Pete Rose?

Been thinking about this one lately, since hearing a quesstion about whether Derek Jeter was overrated on my PTI Podcast.

His career stats, as of now, stand at 172 HR, 786 RBI, 217 SB, and most importantly, a .314 average from 1976 career hits.

Within the next couple weeks, he will pass 2000 hits, while still only 31 years old.

Does he have a chance to do it, which would mean he's not really "overrated"?

Well, for the last ten seasons, he has averaged 196 hits per year. Take out 2003, where he missed 40 games, and he averages 201 hits a year (Even in 2003, pro-rated to a full season, would have meant 210 hits).

Say he continues getting 200-210 hits this year and the next five years - in this lineup, a strong possibility.

Say he starts to decline a little beyond that - 180-190 hits for the next five years.

He's now 42. He now stands at:

1976 (currently)
160 (the rest of this year)
1025 (205 * ages 32-36)
925 (185 * ages 37-41)

He would stand jsut past 4000 hits - or a little more than two seasons away from Pete Rose, who played until he was 45 and had 4256 hits. Given his other numbers, he may be close to or over 300 HR, 300 SB, and 1500 RBI as well.

So, there's a good chance that if he continues to stay healthy, he could be the new all-time Hit King. I don't really like to say it about this Yankee who seems to have everything handed to him on a silver platter, but the numbers, so far, do speak for themselves.

Just avoid the ponies and the bookies.

One horrible thought - what if he and A-Rod are still teammates in 10 years, Jeter's going for the hits record, and A-Rod is gunning for Hank Aaron's HR record?

I shudder at the thought of that publicity machine.

2 comments:

TB7393 said...

I was just googling Derek Jeter's 2000 hits and I read your post. It was very insightful, except for the last comment, which of course you're entitled to (it being your post). I won't deny Derek Jeter is a popular sports star, but as you have found out his numbers speak for themselves and he doesn't showboat. If you're going to make a comment, get the human side of it, like DJ didn't even care about his 2000th hit and I'm damn sure he won't care about 3000 if he gets there. When asked about it, he commented "I can't believe there aren't more Yanks who have done this". He doesn't see what he accomplished as something of value if it doesn't add to the team. Although I understand that all you did was post what was on your mind, it's hard to read what you wrote and not comment. Overrated is an empty word used by those who choose not to look further, like what you just did. You did so well with the entire article and then you resorted right back to the liberal media monotone opinion of "Yanks bad, Evil Empire, etc"

Francase said...

I don't think I'll ever again be described as part of the liberal media again :)

I think my last comment about the publicity machine is quite fair. Any athlete playing in the biggest market in the game will have more publicity, no matter what. Considering this would be two players chasing all-time records I think the publicity would be insane in any market - and even more exaggerated in New York.

Jeter is right in saying he didn't think 2000 was a big deal. A lot of players have done it. 2500, 3000, and so on will have much more meaning to him, though.