Tuesday, October 17, 2006

Three weeks to go

Thankfully, I am spared the majority of political ads in Georgia, as there are no Senate races and GA-CD-11 is not a competitive race at the moment. The only "race" we have is for Governor, and Sonny Perdue is trouncing Mark Taylor by 24 points - not a surprise, considering Taylor has no ideas and his son did kill someone.

In lieu of that, though, many other readers are getting bludgeoned each hourly by advertisements, and are probably at the point of throwing a hatchet through the television if one more crappy ad shows up.

The House could go either way at this point. The GOP could lose anywhere from five to twenty-five seats. Beyond that seems a little difficult, thanks to the incumbent protection act, and I don't think anyone gives the GOP a chance in hell of a net pickup. The GOP will probably pick up 1 in Georgia, at least, thanks to Mac Collins, and possibly two depending on CD-12's 2004 rematch.

Nationally in the House? I don't know. I'm not good enough to handle 435 races. Try here (DEM 222, GOP 213), or here (DEM 208, GOP 209, Undecided 18), or here (who has no frickin idea on the House). Basically, all over the map. I think it will flip but it'll be a slim margin (maybe two seats) but that will be enough to convince Pelosi, Rangel et al to go waaaaay overboard over the next two years, which will backfire in 2008 on the national, state, and local level. I back that up with absolutely nothing except a semi-educated guess.

It seems a bit easier to get an idea of the Senate, though.

GOP: 40 not running
DEM: 27 not running

Of the 33 races remaining, many are safe.

GOP: 40 + Lugar, Snowe, Lott, Hutchison, Hatch, Ensign, Thomas (WY) = 47
DEM: 27 + Feinstein, Carper, Akaka, Drunk Teddy, Conrad, Clinton, Kohl, Byrd, Sanders (I), Nelson (FL), Bingaman = 38

47-37-1 with 15 races left. The Filthy Fifteen. Blech.

AZ: Kyl (R) - Kyl is eading by single digits, and can't get over 50%, but there should be enough to get re-elected. Supporting deployment of even more troops to Iraq, which could play either way with Arizona voters. Considering his enthusiastic support of the online gaming ban, I'm not too thrilled with him going back, but it'll probably happen. GOP HOLD - 48-37-1

MD: Open (D) - Paul Sarbanes' old seat. A Steele win here over Cardin would be sweet and cause liberals to have heart attacks on the spot. A man can dream. It's going to be tough to make up a 9% deficit in a few weeks, but this is an odd case of a black conservative Republican against a white liberal Democrat. Cardin's floating around 50% in polling data, and it doesn't seem likely that all the undecideds will flock to Steele or that polling sata would be that far off the mark. It'll be a lot closer than 9 points, but not close enough. DEM HOLD - 48-38-1

MN: Open (D) - Open in name only, every poll shows at least a 15-point lead for Amy Blobuchar (D). A sad GOP showing in a race that was supposed to be competitive and even a possible flip. DEM HOLD - 48-39-1

NE: Nelson (D) - See Minnesota - otherwise, a race as boring as the state itself. At least the Cornhuskers are ranked. DEM HOLD - 48-40-1

MI: Stabenow (D) - How she now has a double-digit lead is beyond amazing given the lousy economic conditions in Michigan. Lost jobs? No growth? No problem! I can't believe this will be a DEM HOLD - 48-41-1

WA: Cantwell (D) - Mike McGavick is down by an average of 8 points, but this state always gets kooky to the left on Election Day and an average of only 6% are listed as "undecided". Probably not happening. DEM HOLD - 48-42-1

MO: Talent (R) - This race is a virtual dead heat, but one other statistic will decide this race. Talent has about $2.5 million left in the bank. Claire McCaskill has about $250,000. Money talks. GOP HOLD - 49-42-1

TN: Open (R) - Thank God Bill Frist is gone, just in time to re-take control of HCA. The race between Corker and Ford has been back and forth. Once again, follow the money - $3.9 million raised for Corker in the 3rd quarter, $2.1 million raised for Ford. GOP HOLD - 50-42-1

What will flip?

MT: Burns (R) - I'm amazed this race is as close as it is, but I don't think Burns will escape. The biggest Abramoff casualty. DEM PICKUP - 50-43-1

VA: Allen (R) - Speaking of crappy ads, what a holy mess this race has become! In his next attempt to show voters he's not sexist, George Allen will probably wear a dress. His presidential campaign is certainly dead, and his Senate career probably is too. Macaca that. DEM PICKUP - 50-44-1

OH: Dewine (R) - Incompetency in DeWine's campaign and the Ohio GOP will drown the entire slate of candidates in Ohio - yes, that means Kenneth Blackwell too. So much for the rise of the black conservative, at least for this year. DEM PICKUP - 50-45-1

RI: Chafee (R) - RINO v. liberal. Good ridance to Chafee who wasn't worth a damn to the GOP anyway. No one is consistently over 50% but every poll seems to favor Whitehouse. Too bad Laffey couldn't win the primary so that there would be a difference in the candidates. DEM PICKUP - 50-46-1

CT: Lieberman (I) - Congratulations, Kos, by kicking out Lieberman you've now made it very difficult to attain 51 seats in the Senate. Hope the primary victory was worth it. A double-digit lead in almost every poll means a likely IND PICKUP 50-46-2

NJ: Menendez (D) - This race is now within the margin of error and it's too late to pull a switch like Torricelli and Lautenberg in 2004. Some polls actually show Kean ahead. Can he make up 4% in 3 weeks? With another $500,000 from the NRSC and by out-fundraising Menendez over the last few months, it could happen. Culture of corruption, anyone? GOP PICKUP - 51-46-2 and a retention of the Senate.

The Shocker:

PA: Santorum (R) - Left for dead so many times we've lost count, Santorum has been killing Casey in every debate, killing him in advertising, and killing him on the stump. This race is down to single digits and is closing fast. In a shocking turnaround from earlier this year, Santorum wins for a GOP HOLD - 52-46-2.

A loss of three seats in the Senate, but the GOP retains control. Welcome to gridlock. Enjoy your stay for the next two years.

Of course, if these estimates are incorrect, I will do the same as always and assume no responsibility whatsoever.

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