Pick time!

But first, a quick note:

To: Bill Simmons
Re: 9/6/06 Column

Thanks for picking the Patriots to win it all. I needed the laugh.

His columns get funnier and funnier, and not in a good way.

OK, here goes:

NFC East: I'm not buying the Cowboys. T.O. will kill that team within five weeks - heck, it's already started. The Skins have Mark Brunell at QB. The Eagles think that a perenially underachieving WR will be the answer - No, no, and no. That leaves the GIANTS. For fantasy purposes, Eli had better throw for 3200 yards and have a 2:1 TD/INT ratio, at a minimum. Otherwise, I'm screwed.

NFC North: What an ugly division. The Bears have no offense, the Vikings have no love boat, the Packers are stuck with Brett Favre and the fork in his back, and the Lion are, well, the Lions. I'll pick the BEARS because they are actually really good on one sie of the ball, and that defense might be enough for a 10-win season.

NFC West: Seattle lost a lot this offseason. St. Louis has improved but still has Marc Bulger at QB. The 49ers have good young talent, and could surprise. We could see a 9-7 division winner, and with all the moves they made this offseason, I'm picking ARIZONA. Let's hope this pick is more accurate than in previous years.

NFC South: The best team in the conference resides here. CAROLINA will win the division in a rout.

NFC Wild Cards: One of these teams could be 8-8 - again. I'm inclined to pick Tampa Bay and St. Louis, with the Rams being that 8-8 team.

NFC Champ: Carolina. Too much talent, too many weapons on both sides of the ball, and the rest of the NFC is awful.

AFC East: As implied above, I give the Patriots no chance. Receivers are important. If they had settled their dispute with Branch amicably, then I could pick them. However, they've lost him and gotten nothing, nor have they replaced him. I'm inclined to go with MIAMI - they upgraded significantly at QB with Culpepper, despite his terrible 2005 it is a massive improvement. Ronnie Brown will be an every-down back and there's a strong defense still in place. Enough to win the division.

AFC South: Jacksonville doesn't have enough on defense to be as dominant a team as Indianapolis, and Leftwich keeps missing time. The Jags didn't improve their line so he could sit on the sideline for a few games again next to Fred Taylor's groin. COLTS win the division.

AFC West: Raiders? No, not with Aaron Brooks. Broncos? No - QB controversy waiting to happen. Chiefs? A karma nightmare waiting to happen after Edwards bailed on the Jets. The CHARGERS, after last year's weak finish, should rebound quite well thanks to a favorable schedule and the growth of Philip Rivers. He doesn't have to do a lot with Tomlinson at RB and Gates at TE, just manage the game until he's comfortable winging it. Look for a Big Ben type of season from him in his first season starting.

AFC North: This is probably the toughest of all the divisions. All four teams are legitimate playoff threats. While Carson Palmer seems to be recovering nicely (and making me regret not selecting him), off-field troubles could prevent this team from reaching 10 wins. Cleveland loaded up on defense, but still seems weak offensively. Pittsburgh will miss Big Ben for at least a week, and I don't think Parker is the answer at RB over a full season. As for Baltimore, the defense should be very strong again, with the addition of Ngata and returning to a 3-4 defense. Steve McNair is the best QB this franchise has had in Baltimore, and a full season of Jamal Lewis and Todd Heap should push them over the top. The RAVENS take the division.

AFC Wild Cards: Pittsburgh, Cincinnati. That's right, the Patriots miss the playoffs entirely.

AFC Champion: CHARGERS. The schedule-makers were kind to them and division opponents have too many problems, and they could be the #2 seed in the AFC, then advance to the Super Bowl when Indy chokes again.

Super Bowl XLI: San Diego 27, Carolina 16.