Thursday, April 13, 2006

It's about damn time!

Seven and a half months after Katrina hit, FEMA is finally issuing guidelines and recommendations for re-building. Not maps, yet, but guidelines so that at least there's some kind of "plan."

The good news: For a large part of the city, flood elevations are not being changed, as improvements in flood protection and levee systems are also planned.

The bad news: Those improvements won't be done in two months when a new hurricane season begins it won't be fully implemented until 2010. The goal is to have levees back to pre-Katrina levels by June. At least for this summer, it is a major roll of the dice that another major storm won't hit.

The not-so-surprising news: Thousands of homes in heavily damaged and flooded areas will be required to build higher in order to qualify for any insurance, at least three feet higher. Any house that was damaged over 50% must be raised. Premiums will be higher on insurance (due to the higher risk) but one would have insurance on an existing, grandfathered house.

The surprising news: Also, any new housing built from this point on must be 3 feet above sea level.

Most importantly, any house that was damaged, but for less than 50% of its value, can be repaired and does not have to be raised up to 3 ft. above sea level. They are grandfathered.

I say it's surprising, because the MSM finds it surprising. Personally, I'm not surprised one bit. Hell, I could have receommended this six months ago.

We will see either plans to re-do heavily flooded areas like the Lower 9th, or convert them into greenspace or open land, as almost all buildings in that area would have to be rebuilt under the new guidelines. Honestly, I don't think putting every building on a 10-foot pier is feasible, and the land itself would provide a moderate buffer should another major storm hit.

What you will begin to see in the next few months are current residents and homeowners beginning to return in droves. Currently, the population sits around 180,000, down from 460,000 before the storm.

We will see residents return to begin repairing their homes, in areas that had moderate flooding.

We will see families return to the area for the beginning of a new school year if no major storm hits before Labor Day. Also, a recovering educational system.

We will see businesses begin functioning again thanks to the return of a consumer base.

We will see a burgeoning real estate market, as quite a few of these properties will be repaired and sold, or sold as-is to investors or other consumers. Possibly, to people completely displaced due to total damage and looking for a new permanent place to live.

We will see a recovering job market. as people will return, business owners will return looking to hire people.

I would not be surprised if the population returns to 300,000 or 320,000 - about 2/3 of the pre-Katrina population in Orleans Parish come Fall.

This is a first step. But at least it is a step.

The next step will occur April 22. A mayor will hopefully be elected, one that can build business interests, and does not have the stench of failed policies, failed leadership, or political cronyism. This city needs someone who can bring a track record of success and a visionary leader.

One can only hope that this man will be the one who can lead this city back to prominence.

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