The Next Chase?

With 756 seeming to be almost inevitable at this point, it got me to thinking again about other player's chances of becoming the all-time home run leader.

Ken Griffey moved to No. 7 all-time in HR yesterday, passing Mark McGwire, and is two behind Frank Robinson for 6th at 586.

Of course, I write this knowing it's almost certain the number to pass won't be 756, but possibly something closer to 800. Based on current numbers, there's really only six players who might be able to get there (in decreasing current totals).

1) Griffey (584) Unfortunately, he is 37 years old already, and would require a Bonds-like renaissance over the next few years to have a chance. Too bad, considering ten years ago it seemed like he was a virtual lock to make it and I don't think anyone would have disapproved.

2) Manny Ramirez (481, 35 years old) - Also pretty unlikely, but if he spends the rest of his career in Boston with lazy flies going over the Monster, may have a shot. We can't assume everyone stops playing at 40 anymore - Bonds is turning 43 soon, and in this time playing past 40 at a decent level isn't that far-fetched, especially as a full-time DH in a few years. He's starting to drop off a little bit this season with only 11 HR so far, but I'm not sure if it's jsut a short-term slump or the beginning of a long-term decline.

3) Alex Rodriguez (492, 31 years old) I knew he'd just passed 450, but didn't realize he may get to 500 by the All-Star Break. Despite 12 seasons of experience, he is still only 31 so he may only be at the HALFWAY POINT of his career. Even with a Griffey-like breakdown over the next several years, he would be within shouting distance of 800. (Griffey has had 165 HR in the previous 7 seasons with Cincinnati, so even if he were to just duplicate that, he would be past 650 at the same age).

4) Andruw Jones (353, 30 years old) Of course, hitting .199 for this season is not helping very much. Short-term, a change of scenery would be best and might get him untracked. Of course, the Braves didn't trade him to the Red Sox last year before he became a 10-5 guy, so they'll only get 20 cents on the dollar thanks to the worst contract push of all time which has made it much more unlikely he will get there. If he can get his head straight in time and return to 2005 form, the odds improve dramatically. If he moved to a better hitter's park, the odds improve as well. If he plays for another 12-15 years, he'd be close to or past 700.

5) Vladimir Guerrero (352, 31 years old) Consistent, but only two 40-plus homer seasons so far. An average of 37 HR per 162 games gets you close, but not quite there. Hurt a bit by the ballpark, too.

6) Albert Pujols (266, 27 years old) He's been amazing to this point - and 26-27 is normally when hitters enter their peak years. In his age 27 year, he's on pace for his fifth straight 40-HR season - and yet compared to prior seasons, he's technically having an off-year. The second-best chance to reach 800 after A-Rod.

So I guess the chances are as such:

1) A-Rod
2) Pujols
3) Andruw
4) Manny
5) Vlad
6) Griffey

In a weird way, folks who wouldn't necessarily root for A-Rod's success may decide to start doing just that if it means he topples Bonds - almost in the same way people didn't really warm to Mantle until Maris threatened to break the single-season record. Also weird since A-Rod shares a few of Mantle's vices.

Good thing he didn't get busted in a poker game last week - the club on 61st was one he's frequented in the past.