Thursday, February 09, 2006

Braves Preview, Part 2 of 2

Continuing the earlier post...


STARTING PITCHING:

Smoltz and Hudson still look to be good anchors for a starting rotation. Both got 14 wins last year, and despite nagging injuries should each be good for 15 wins this year. Jorge Sosa had an amazing year last year, going 13-3 with a 2.55 ERA, but he needs to cut down on his walks (64 BB in 134 IP) if he wants to have another good year. Still, considering he did not join the rotation until June, he did very well. With a full season as a starter, there’s no reason not to legitimately expect 15-17 wins and an ERA in the low 3’s if he can keep the walks under control.

If only the back end of the rotation were in decent shape. John Thomson and Horacio Ramirez didn’t bring much to the table last year. Thomson missed almost three months of last season, and didn’t really impress once he returned in mid-August, Why the Braves picked him up for another year at almost $5 MILLION, I’m not really sure, especially since Kyle Davies seems ready to take that spot for about a tenth of the cost – Davies started out on fire but slipped as the season wore on – hopefully a year of growing up and getting stronger will allow him to avoid a late-season fade again, if he ends up getting 20 starts. Ramirez was hurt for most of 2004 and was a mediocre pitcher last year who never seemed to get past the sixth inning. But, he is signed for very little money, so he’s a serviceable #5.

RELIEF PITCHING:

The main objective of the offseason was to go out and get additional help in the bullpen after a horrific 2005. No one could close, no one could set up. A complete mess.

So the Braves let Furcal go, to free up money to sign such help. He made $8 million last year. That can be used for something. Right?

WRONG.

Kyle Farnsworth is gone to the Yankees - considering the choke job in the playoffs last year, that’s probably a good thing.

Danny Kolb is back in Milwaukee. Again, good riddance. They didn’t get much back, though.

The Estrada trade brought two decent relievers, Lance Cormier and Oscar Villareal, who aren’t too much of an upgrade from last year’s motley crew of John Foster, Joey Devine, Macay McBride, and Chris Reitsma.

Not one free-agent signing of a reliever. The Braves go into camp with Chris Reitsma as the closer. Yes, the same Reitsma who posted a 3-6 record, a 3.93 ERA, 15 saves, 9 blown saves, and more cursing than Braves fans care to remember.

This outstanding performance was rewarded with a $2.75 million contract for 2006.

COACHING:

For the last 15 years the core has not changed. Now, Leo Mazzone is gone, and Roger McDowell is the new pitching coach. He comes to Atlanta after a terrific job with the Dodgers.

Of course, by terrific, I am referring to the major injuries to Odalis Perez, Eric Gagne, and Darren Dreifort among other pitchers over several years and a 90-loss season last year. But I’m sure the pitching deficiency couldn't be due to the pitching coach, could it?

Major downgrade from Leo. He will be missed.

OUTLOOK:

Between sitting on their hands this offseason and letting the most valuable member of their coaching staff go, things don’t look as bright as past seasons.

Combine the Braves’ inaction with the Mets picking up Billy Wagner, Carlos Delgado, Jorge Julio, and Paul LoDuca, and this is probably the year the streak ends.

PREDICTION: 86-76, 2nd Place, NL East.

4 comments:

Paul Zummo said...

Just to be a complete pain in the ass, and because I have been waiting for the streak to end for about 7 year, I will of course pick the Braves to win the division this year.

I'll try and do my preview for the pre-season begins in earnest.

TSL said...

I love how you note that Smoltz and Hudson each managed 14 wins last year, but on a worse team this time out they are good for 15!

Keep drinking that sweet tea flavored Kool Aid.

1969, 1986, 2006.

Anonymous said...

A bold TSL prediction of a Mets world's championship???

86-76 sounds about right to me. But that might be nearly enough to win a suddenly much weaker NL East!

Last point: a minor correction. I agree Roger will likely be no Leo. But he was the Dodgers minor league pitching instructor. Please don't blame him for Perez, Dreifort and Gagne! Maybe his experience will bode well for him working with guys like Sosa, Davies, James and the kids in the bullpen.

APOSEC72 said...

I can see one game each where they stubbornly stay out because they don't want Reitsma, et al blowing the game.

I suppose all those great Dodgers prospoects should make me feel better.

Like, um, uh.......

Um, no.