Wednesday, June 07, 2006

The NBA...It's FANNNNNTASTIC!

These playoffs are probably the best playoffs in almost 10 years. Possibly in almost 20 years, since Showtime and Boston were regularly in the Finals. We've had a lot of entertaining series, and gotten rid of the grinding, win-ugly-on-defense teams such as San Antonio and Detroit.

Now, we've got a Finals with two high-energy, high-talent teams beginning tomorrow night, with all seven games at American Airlines Arena(s).

I've been trying to figure out who might win, and unlike previous years it's hard to have a clear-cut favorite. Doesn't look like any sportswriters can figure it out. Let's break it down...

SMALL FORWARD:
Antoine Walker & James Posey, Miami
Josh Howard & Jerry Stackhouse, Dallas

Defensively, Howard and Stackhouse come through, especially with Walker's penchant for standing around the 3-point line and tossing up bad shots. EDGE: DALLAS.

POWER FORWARD:
Udonis Haslem, Miami
Dirk Nowitzki, Dallas

Matchup is even worse when Walker plays PF. Nowitzki is the best all-around player in the series. Can Dirk average 40 in the Finals? Maybe. EDGE: DALLAS.

POINT GUARD:
Jason Williams & Gary Payton, Miami
Jason Terry & Devin Harris, Dallas

Neither Williams nor Terry plays great D, and Williams can be psyched out pretty easily with a bad start in any game. Devin Harris has come out a bit in these playoffs but is still inferior defensively to Payton. When Payton gets matched up on Terry, Dallas may suffer a bit on the offensive end. It's tight, but....SLIGHT EDGE...MIAMI.

SHOOTING GUARD:
Dwyane Wade, Miami
Josh Howard, Dallas (and sometimes Harris)

Does anyone else think the flu and sinus infection story is just a setup for a big game Thursday? Does anyone else think Wade will have a lot of highlight reels when this series is over? Me too. EDGE: MIAMI.

CENTER:
Shaq-Fu & Alonzo Mourning, Miami
DeSagana Diop & Erick Dampier, Dallas

This is not really fair. Until you factor in Nowitzki coming over to help. Then it isn't nearly as bad as it could be. Diop does know how to flop, but even if Shaq gets in Foul trouble, Zo is still a capable backup. EDGE: MIAMI.

COACHING:

Avery Johnson, Dallas
Pat Riley, Miami

One guy has a chip on his shoulder after getting ripped up on taking over the team midway through the season. So does the other guy, last season.

One has been innovative in his play design and defensive coaching based on the turnaround from last year to this year. So has the other guy.

Both have shown tremendous ability in preparing their teams well for every game on both ends of the floor.

What is comes down to for me is that one guy is in his first NBA finals as a coach. One guy has four rings. I can't go against the rings, even if he f'ed up in NY. EDGE: MIAMI.

HOME-COURT ADVANTAGE: DALLAS.

Well, Dallas has the best player and home-court, but Miami can attack in more ways than Dallas.
Based on the breakdowns and the fact that four of the positions break down evenly, it will come down to the play of the PG's, and if you ask me to bet on Gary Payton or Jason Terry....well, I'm not going to bet on the former Hawk.

Miami in 6. Yes, that means winning one, probably two games in Dallas. They do have the talent. It's a tough call, but I can't see them winning a Game 7 in Dallas. I can see them winning a Game 6.

On one other note - do you really think David Stern wants to hand the trophy to Mark Cuban? I don't. I won't be surprised to see some questionable refereeing to ensure a Miami victory. But that's just the conspiracy theorist in me coming out.

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