Changing Speeds

I've been trying to expand my horizons with my poker play online lately.

Instead of keeping strictly to Hold 'Em, I've been playing a multitude of games. Partially because I'm a little bored with it, but probably also owing to a competitive streak and wanting to be the best at everything.

So, lately, I've been playing a lot more of the following:

RAZZ: Basically, it's 7-stud for low hand. I'm not crazy about regular 7-stud, but I've been a bit more interested in Razz instead because, well, it's a unique game.

TRIPLE DRAW: One of Daniel Negreanu's favorites, it's another game for low hand. It's five-card draw with a twist - you do three rounds of trading in cards, and can play for either 2-to-7 or Ace-to-five. I've played it a little more at Ultimate Bet lately and done all right.However, it hasn't been as fun as.....

OMAHA 8: It's Omaha Hi-Lo. It's been a LOT of fun because there's much more consideration of possible draws and combinations than in other games. Add in the consideration of low hands and it can be a pretty fun time. I've been playing a ton of this lately, and doing strangely well. Actually, while writing this post, I managed to triple my remaining bankroll playing Omaha 8 at Absolute Poker.

Don't get worried; I say remainder because I cashed out a bunch of it earlier today thanks to good play so we'll be doing a lot of decorating this weekend. IKEA, here we come!

Anyway, one more poker item to write about whih should interest you:

Do you like to blog?

Do you like poker?

Then click here for a bloggers-only tournament on Saturday, Nov. 18. It's part of the Blogger Poker Tour. It will be a shorthanded NLHE tournament - 6 to a table, not 9 or 10.

The top prize in the overall tourney is a prize package to the Aussie Millions worth $12,500 in January 2007 in Melbourne, Australia. This tournament, by itself, has a $500 prize pool. Only 61 people are registered, so if you're halfway decent, sign up - you'll probably place in the money.

It's hosted by Poker.com, and you can click here to sign up a new account through Poker Source Online.

I probably will miss this one, as I might be busy painting walls in the shade of Butter Up or one of the other 8,000 colors Sherwin-Williams offers. But, it might be fun for you.

You gotta be kidding me

Well, I guess the GOP didn't really learn the lesson we hoped they would from this election.

Trent Lott Wins Back Leadership Slot

Because, what better way to mend fences with a disillusioned base than to select someone who's couldn't give a fig about a lot of the base's concerns?

So much for pork/earmark reform, border control, "amnesty" and other concerns, because, frankly, he's "getting damn tired of hearing from them".

Way to give a damn about your base.

Goddammit.

Looks like a pretty universal reaction at this point.

Good work if you can get it

$600,000 for lobbying?

I'm thinking that pay scale doesn't include the hot tubs with hookers and coke. Even so, I'm not sure how that would be reported.

Who really won?

The obvious answer would be that every Republican lost in the elections and every Democrat won. But that's not truly the case.

LOSER: Karl Rove. Sorry, the aura is gone. The shift in direction away from Rovian influence was evident by the selection of Michael Steele to head the RNC. Bad tactics couldn't be afforded in an election such as this, and Rumsfeld's departure, had it come before the election as a planned occurrence, would have saved a couple of House seats and probabl kept the Senate from flipping.

LOSER: Nancy Pelosi. But she's the new Speaker! How could she be a loser? Well, her limited time in the spotlight was enough to turn off many people. Now, imagine seeing the Shrieker of the House every night. Aside from California and Massachusetts, I don't really think too many people will grow fonder of her politics and agenda. Bad moves by her could have big effects on 2008, whereas is she does a good or even halfway decent job, a lot of other people will gladly steal the credit. No-win situation.

LOSER: George Allen. DUH. Thankfully, we are now spared a campaign in 2008 by a candidate who seems almost exactly the same as W.

LOSER: Hillary Clinton. Again, how is it a loss for her? Well, she is now a member of the majority party, like it or not, and she will be a lot more visible touting measures that will again be unpopular (remember universal healthcare?) Besides, this election almost signaled a rejection of the Clintonian philosophy, in conceding certain areas even before the election begins, an favor of a different strategy - which is why she's a loser and....

BIG WINNER: Howard Dean. I thought the 50-state strategy was a good idea, and one that would pay divideneds in 2008, 2010, 2012. Not many people expected returns of this magnitude this quickly. A lot of credit should go to Howard Dean for taking a high-risk/high-reward strategy - it took almost all of the funds in the Democrats' coffers, but it worked. Besides, the efforts of the last two years may very well play out in the future in his favor, should he attempt another Presidential run.

WINNER: John Boehner/John Shadegg. Whoever emerges as the new Mouse Minority Leader of these two is sure to have gotten the message that voters just sent - return to 1994, not 2004. Hopefully, it will be one of these two, and not Eric Cantor or (shudder) Roy Blunt.

WINNER: Veto pen. I'm hopeful it will be used more than one time in the next two years.

WINNER: Poker Players. One thing we can count on seeing in the first six months of the year is an exemption for online poker, so that financial transactions can go unobstructed. Eventually, a system of revenue will come into place, because dangling money in front of Democrats is quite easy to get their attention. As the PPA has called for regulation and taxation for quite a while, and several incoming House Committee Chairs are in favor of this direction, I am feeling much more positive about its eventual recognition.

LOSER: W. No detail required. I know it historically happens. But it could have been avoided, and we all know this to be true, so I'm not going to expound further.

LOSER: Average taxpayer. Basically, if you pay taxes at all, your taxes will increase. Sorry. Min are going up, yours are going up, your neighbor's are going up.

LOSER: John McCain. Guess what? The Dems have both houses. The media doesn't need you anymore, to show its bipartisanship, and will stop adoring your "maverick" stances around, oh January 4. Oh, and the majority of your party hates you for undermining forewign policy and campaign-finance regulation, i.e. the Incumbency-Protection Act.

WINNER: Mitt Romney. With Allen out of the way, he's pretty much the only one standing on the right side of the GOP Spectrum, and his governance of a decidedly liberal state compared to conservative viewpoints will give him a leg up over his more liberal competitors in the primary, McCain and Giuliani. He might be unopposed entirely on the right, dependent on the decision of.......

WINNER: Newt Gingrich. Newt left in 1999 with some bitterness at the direction of conservative House members and the progression fro "Contract with America" to "K Street Project". This loss will allow the party (I hope) to regain some sense of self and what its priorities should be, and given Newt has had a lot of questions before the election about running, it's possible he may do so with Allen out of the way and only Romney as competition on the right.

WINNER: Harry Reid & Pat Leahy. Happy friggin birthday. The Dems can blockade any judicial appointee that comes down the pike and not even let them out of committee. I'm almost positive Stevens steps down next year, to guarantee someone closer to his ilk gets his SCOTUS seat.

LOSER: Condi Rice. This election is a partial repudiation of our foreign policy adventures, and I'm pretty sure we can stop talking about any possibility of Condi for higher office now.

PUSH: Stock Markets. I'm surprised to see they haven't moved much since the election. I was expecting a 100-point swing on Wednesday, depending on the results. This prediction worked as well as all my others - market closed almost unchanged. Even within targets sectors as energy, pharmaceuticals, banking, etc., there was no significant change. The lesson....I'm an idiot.

That's about it on my thoughts right now.

Now what?

As I write this, we've seen #3 Louisville, #5 Auburn, and #8 California lose. #6 Texas is losing by 10 points in the 4th Quarter to lowly Kansas State.

This will clarify and muddle the CFB playoff picture simultaneouly.

Obviously, the teams above are the big losers, but who's going to benefit?

(I'm not even bothering to mention the Big 10 - Ohio State and Michigan will get enough hype next week.)

Florida: Held off South Carolina today with a blocked FG at the gun to remain in the one loss club. They finish with Western Carolina (??), Florida State, and the SEC championship against Arkansas. Sweeping all of those games, which would include two ranked teams, will help their case immensely. However, it's not as strong as........

USC: They have got the toughest closing stretch left - Cal, Notre Dame, and UCLA. Their slip-up to Oregon State notwithstanding, this might be enough to get to Glendale if they run the table. They're winning 14-0 tonight against Oregon.

West Virginia: If they take out Rutgers next week, everyone benefits. I think, though, that no one from the Big East has a chance, so they all beat up each other and played nobody from any other power conference. No chance since they lost to Louisville. COnsidering I picked them before the season....thanks a lot.

Notre Dame: Aside from Michigan, Georgia Tech and USC, it's really a creampuff schedule. They got killed by Michigan, barely beat Tech, and will probably get killed by USC.

Arkansas: The team no one talks about is moving up 4 spots this week, and beat Tennessee convincingly. If they run the table (MSU, LSU, FLA) then they've got some BIG marquee wins on their schedule.

Boise State/Rutgers: No. I know they have no losses, but no. They will be in the top 12 tomorrow, but neither of them has any chance of playing in Glendale.

So, this means it'll either be USC or the SEC champ. I'm sick and tired of the goddamn Trojans, and I think it'll be the SEC champ as payback for the snub of Auburn a few years ago.

UPDATE: Texas loses 45-42. Today's earthquake is complete.

Mehlman Out, Steele In

Heard about it this afternoon, but just now saw it confirmed. Ken Mehlman has stepped aside, to be replaced by Maryland Lt. Gov. Michael Steele.

So, this man is now the head of the Republican National Committee.

Too bad he lost for Maryland Senate, but I'm glad he's in this role for the next two years to take on Howard Dean.

But remember, the GOP has no diversity at all.

Oasis in the desert

Here's the results of the recent election, based on voting for Governor.

It's gotten just SLIGHTLY more red than blue.

Just a little.
























The blue areas are Valdosta, the city limits of Atlanta, Savannah, and Albany.

The red areas comprise 130 of 159 counties in Georgia.

So there's a little bit of a trend. And a reson to live here. Better the oasis than stuck in the middle of the desert.

Spider Man Trois

NICE.




May 4, so six months. Looks pretty cool, so far.

Scarlet Knights Unite

That cheering you hear is from the other major football programs acoross the country.

Rutgers beat Louisville, 28-25.

If Rutgers loses one of its last three games, to either Cincinnati, Syracuse, or West Virginia, then the odds are very good that Texas, Auburn, Florida, or Auburn goes to the BCS Championship.

One of them may go even if Rutgers wins out. With such a weak schedule, it's possible they go to one of the other games instead.

Helluva game, though.

More donkey bashing

Literally.

Click here.

It's about a minute into the clip.

Open Thread Gone Wild

Check this thread out over at AoSHQ. 620 comments and rising.

Who says we don't occasionally have a sense of humor, even with crappy days?

Story of the day

I'm still bumming.

So I don't want to write anything political for a little while. I'm waiting until I'm a little clear headed so I can throw everything together.

In the meantime, you may have heard at GSB that Britney Spears is getting divorced. Apparently she couldn't handle the talented, sophisticated, creative genius that is K-Fed.

Either that or she got tired of having to read everything for him.

Apparently, according to other posts I've seen on sites, this makes her hot again. I'm not really sure if that's the case.

Judge for yourself.

She's in pretty good shape, looking better than barefoot and sweatpants in a gas station, but I'm pretty sure she's not back to what she was before. Two kids does that, folks. She does look pretty good for having two kids in the last two years.

But this ain't happening again, fellas.

Last Post

Time to go to bed. I don't think anything is drastically improving in the next few hours.

House looks to be 225 Dem, 210 GOP.

The remaining Senate races - Virgnina is too close and won't be resolved for a while but, for now, is a 1200 vote lead for Webb. Montana shows a 9,000 vote lead for Tester (D) over Conrad Burns. Missouri shows a 18,500 vote lead for McCaskill.

It looks like the Democrats may have pulled it off and taken both houses.

Well, if you already have no money, or don't work, or are a Krazy Kos Kid, you won't get screwed over too much. You'll still get screwed, though, so when you come back in two years because San Fran Nan screwed you over, I don't want to hear it.

If you've started savings, working, making money, and enjoyed any sort of benefit from the last six years (i.e. 95% of taxpayers in this country) well, it's going to be a long two years.

At least I can take solace that Georgia is run by the GOP all the way down.

Dammit.

Well, 2008 will be interesting, with no clear-cut nominee from either party. What type of "interesting", good or bad, that means is up to you.

Missouri Update - SWITCH

McCaskill: 803003
Talent: 799007

I need a drink. I don't care if it's 1 AM. I need a drink for this one.

Catch-22

22 House seats lost for now.

It's better than the 30 to 40 expected, but worse than what I expected.

So it's not even a slim Democratic majority. It's big enough to try things.

I don't really want to think about how Democrats can step on their own feet over the next two years. I'm not going to take that for granted anymore.

At least Rahm Emanuel is off my set, and no longer preening.

It's all down to Missouri. Montana is lost, as predicted. Maryland is now a 68,000 vote difference with 76% in, so it's probably time to stop hoping for a pullout on that seat.

Jim Talent has a lead of 48,000 votes with 69% in. It is possible the GOP keeps it. Barely.

FINALLY

Tennessee has been called for Corker. Only about two hours after I called it.

Mac Collins has pulled ahead by 2000 votes, so it may go from -21 to -20. GA-12 is still up in the air - guess I called that one a little early myself!

Missouri: Talent is up by 55,000, but little from St. Louis yet.

Steele in trouble

OK, NOW itis opening up. Dammit.

Cardin is now up by 66,000 with 70% reporting.

Not a good development.

It's coming to Missouri and Virginia. We won't know Virginia for a week. We need to win Missouri tonight to keep all hell from breaking loose.

Let's see if the GOP firewall holds.

Virginia

Webb is now leading by 2376 votes out of 2.2 million cast.

Recount coming regardless of who wins.

I think it's flipping, though.

Congratulations to George Allen for running one of the worst campaigns ever seen in modern politics.

The Georgia File

Here's the rundown for all you Georgia readers out there:

Governor: Sonny did. Winning by 20 points.
Lt. Gov. Casey Cagle (R) wins by 200,000 votes. (12%)
SoS: Karen Handel (R) by 12%.
Atty. General: Thurbert Baker (D) by 14%.

Districts (R first)
GA-1: Kingston 68%, Nelson 32%.
GA-2: Hughes 32%, Bishop 68%.
GA-3: Westmoreland 67%, McGraw 33%.
GA-4: Davis 24%, Johnson 76% (McKinney's old seat)
GA-5: No R, Lewis unopposed.
GA-6: Price 71%, Sinton 29%
GA-7: Linder 70%, Allan Burns 30%
GA-8: Collins 49.1%, Jim Marshall 50.9% (2633 vote difference)
GA-9: Deal 76%, Bradbury 24%
GA-10: Norwood 66%, Holley 34%
GA-11: Gingrey 71%, Pillion 29%.
GA-12: Burns 50%, Barrow 50% (1257 vote difference)
GA-13: Honeycutt 29%, Scott 71% (what happened? This was supposed to be a close one.)

Right now, it is 7 R, 4 D, and two still up in the air.

The Senate rundown

CT: Lieberman
MI: Stabenow leads by 250,000, stays DEM.
MN: Klobuchar, stays DEM.
NJ: Menendez wins by 160,000.
NY: Hillary
OH: Brown up 250,000
PA: Casey by 1/2 M
RI: Whitehouse
TN: Corker
WA: Cantwell leading by 50,000 but it's early, Probably a DEM hold.

MO: Talent winning by 18,000 with half the votes in.
MD: Steele is still winning by 18,000 with half the votes in. THIS IS STILL A TOSS UP.
VA: 8,000 votes difference in a race we all wanted to hear more about.
MT: Just started counting.

Dems still need to sweep ALL FOUR to get the Senate. They may get two. Three is possible. I don't think they're getting all four.

The House is toast

It's now about a 20-seat switch. Even with the wins in Georgia, it won't matter. Dems have the House.

Graf has lost in AZ.

Johnson has lost CT-05.

I'm going to start concentrating on just the Senate at this point, along with Georgia races.

MARYLAND RESCINDED

From the WaPost.

Makes sense, since Steele is winning by 22,000.

Told ya that would happen.

NY-24 - Reynolds Holds

That's a surprise.

The Foley seat is a dead heat.

And Maryland is still full of it. Steele and Ehrlich are both winning, but are projected losers.

NY-20 flips to the Dems. Ouch.

2 more Dem House pickups

NC-11. Heath Shuler wins. Yes, THAT Heath Shuler. Hopefully he'll be a better Congressman than quarterback.

FL-22 - Clay Shaw loses. With Republican control, he would have headed Ways & Means. This is a BIG loss.

At this point, the GOP is down two touchdowns. 1 more seat will flip the House. Hopefully they can play better defense in the Midwest and Southwest.

Steele down, but only by 2,000

I think this call in MD is getting rescinded.

Only 39% in and the numbers haven't separated.

I'm not counting that as dead quite yet.

Chafee has probably lost in RI - frankly, I don't care, because Chafee would have jumped to the Dems in a heartbeat if the Senate were tied.

Talent has a 50,000 vote lead in Missouri with 30% in. That is looking pretty good right now, but you never know what ACORN frauds will show up in St. Louis.

GOP has now lost 2 in the Senate - Chafee, Santorum, and Dewine, offset by Corker. I'm not counting Steele out yet.

NY, PA, OH, NH

NH-2 flips Dem.

NY has NO FLIPPED SEATS....yet. Early, though.

OH is messy. Even Deborah Pryce is in trouble.

PA-4, PA-6, PA-7, PA-10, PA-15 are all looking like DEM pickups.

I've got the GOP at -10 in the House and -2 in the Senate.

Oh, and all hail the return of Joementum. Looks like Lieberman wins.

GA-12 Flips

Put one back in the GOP column!

Max Burns has taken his seat back.

Illinois has some good early results as well. Bean's seat may flip.

Interesting break - Hastert and Clay Shaw are losing their races. Interesting as in "oh, crap."

Virginia

30,000 vote separation with 91% in. Both candidates around a million votes.

Allen currently leads but it's too damn close. Of course, other races have been called with less.

Better get the lawyers on planes to Richmond!

PA

Weldon's seat is lost, which was not a surprise.

Ney's seat as well.

Sherwood (PA) as well.

I think it's at -8 for the GOP right now. I don't have anything for NY yet.

CT reps appear to be holding strong and too close to call.

I'm not feeling well.

House losses

Looks like two in Indiana and one in Kentucky for sure. Northrup lost KY-3, but by only 7000 votes. Much closer than anticipated.

Corker wins Tennessee. Hold for the GOP.

Much more official numbers

OK, now the numbers back it up - Santorum, DeWine and Kean have most likely lost. Santorum is down by 170,000, DeWine is down by a similar amount, and Kean is down by 123,000.

So that will be 2 flips to the Dems.

Corker is a hold in Tennessee.

Better numbers

Menendez up by 60,000, and Case up by 50,000. Still early, though.

Steele is winning by 3000 votes, but again, expected to lose...? I'm surprised it's been called.

Ohio has been called with Dewine down by 30,000. That one doesn't surprise me, it was s much of a guaranteed loss as there could be.

This is f***ing insane

Fox is calling MD for Cardin, even though Steele is WINNING but 1,000 votes.

This is total crap.

I'm flipping the set over to poker. I'll post later.

Still BS

Tom Kean Jr. is winning by 7000 votes but is the projected loser.

Still very fishy.

What the hell is going on with FOX? Even CNN isn't jumping the gun to call those seats.

GOP is holding IN-3. That's one that should have been called by now.

Foley seat holding

Joe Negron/Mark Foley currently winning by 2500 votes with 25% reporting.

Interesting hold, if it stays that way. Obviously too close, but an interesting omen.

I smell bull****

NJ Senate and PA Senate called for Menendez and Casey.....but the numbers don't make sense:

Kean: 13442
Menendez: 12629

Casey: 126
Santorum: 90

I'm calling BS.

MAJOR BS.

20:22

Looks like Hostetter is toast in IN-8. So 1 flipped. The other Indiana seats are too close, which is better than the blowouts predicted.

Mac Collins is winning, so that negates IN-8.

Essentially, no change yet.

Corker's winning by about 6,000 so far early on for Tennessee.

It looks like seats will be miraculously kept in the GOP column in Kentucky.

Good news to start the night.

And so it begins

The first polls have closed on the East Coast.

Looks like very heavy turnout for a midterm.

At my polling station, we normally get 130-150 voters.

There were over 300 today, with no competitive Senate election, in a GOP stronghold.

If that's how the GOP is voting, this will be a good night.

I'm sure we'll see plenty of surprises.

I'll start live-blogging in about 20 minutes. I want to eat. Priorities, man. We'll see if the GOP gets 221 and 53 like I predicted.

GOTV

Heading out after work to pick up the car from the shop, then going to vote. I'll be doing a pretty heavy amount of writing tonight, so feel free to come on back.

Governor: Sonny Perdue (R). He's brought a lot to the state since taking over for Roy Barnes. Mark Taylor has done nothing this campaign to give anyone a reason to vote for him. It'll be a landslide - Perdue is up by at least 20.

Lt. Gov.: Jim Martin (D). This is a tough vote. I didn't fully decide until yesterday. I'm still a bit bitter from Casey Cagle's primary fight with Ralph Reed, in which I didn't feel comfortable about supporting either one after it was over. Cagle's site doesn't say a whole lot, while Martin's site touches on a lot more issues and ideas. Martin also has triple the experience of Cagle in the Georgia Legislature. Of course, if Martin wins, it won't matter because the GOP will still have control.

Secretary of State: Karen Handel (R). Always liked her, worked on her campaign for Fulton County Commission Chair a few years ago, so I'll be voting for her again.

Atty. General: Thurbert Baker (D). Baker's done pretty well in his role, and I think Perry McGuire is lacking a lot to do this job. With his work on mortgage fraud and identity theft, he gets my vote.

GA-House 32: Judy Manning (R). Unopposed.

GA-Senate 33: Mark Grant (R). Steve Thompson was Roy Barnes' floor leader. That alone is enough to vote against him.

GA-CD11: Patrick Pillion (D). Again, this is pretty much a protest vote from Gingrey's sponsorship of HR 4411, as Gingrey should win the district with about 80% of the vote. Watch out in 2008, though, for a fight from someone else.

Fever Pitch

Well, this is a good news day, and a good follow up to last night's missive.

Total jobs added now over 7 million in 6 years - another 93,000 non-farm added last month.
DJIA is up 76 points and racing to annother all-time high.
NASDAQ up to 2400, which is Feb. 2001 levels.
S&P is about to hit a six-year high.
Oil is back under $60.

Looks like we've got a fever, and the only prescription...is MORE COWBELL.

Election Day, meet Cowbell Day. Cowbell Day, Election Day.

Party on.

Get yer head out of the sand

From the comments:

Well, Francase, since I implied your asking, I'd suggest that perhaps this economy that you and others praise as being so strong isn't as robust as y'all think. Yeah, I know, the Dow's at 12,000 and Cheney and Bush can't stop talking about it. That's great. But when you realize that the Dow was about 11,000 at the start of Bush's tenure, we haven't really gained that much in 6 years. Didn't we see the Dow go from like 2,000 in 1990 to 10,000 by the end of the decade? So in comparison this isn't much.

Let's see......this is an easy one, since I was at SSB when everything popped in 2000 (wait, who was president then?)

Stocks had soaring P/Es in the 30's and 40's, thanks to unreal speculation on many wild stocks. It wasn't based on earnings, but expectations of future earnings. Potential growth, not actual growth. Pure speculation. The Dow dropped from 11600 in April 2000 to under 10000 soon after, and then dropped tremendously after September 10, 2001, though I can't really think of anything that may have happened that week. The NASDAQ was even worse, dropping from 5000 to less than half its lofty levels, as it housed most of the speculative stocks.

Stocks tightened up, and then started falling again from May through November 2002, from around 10,000 to 8600. Strangely, after Nov. 2002, they started rising again, from 8600. Again, I can't think of what happened in Nov. 2002.

Translation: the bubble popped in 2000, and the market dropped 12%. It stayed steady, but with fears of a democratic takeover, folks sold off. Once it didn't happen, everyone came back in. Since Nov. 2002, the DJIA has risen from 8600 to 12100, a cumulative gain of 41% for just the index. As many portfolio aren't solely consisting of index funds, a lot of people did much better.

Now, we're a few hundred above the previous high of 2000. But instead of P/E's around 40, we have P/E's around 16. This is not a bubble. This is a much firmer foundation.

And then there's all the talk about the CPI and low inflation. True, that's what the numbers say. But the numbers don't tell it all. Health care (now a BIG part of our economy -- just ask the folks at Chevy and Ford) doesn't count towards those numbers. If you factor in the HUGE increases over the past 6 years in the cost of health care, suddenly it's not as rosy of a picture. Then do the same with prescription drugs, which the government now subsidizes. The argument gets even stronger.

Chevy and Ford are doing terribly because of poor management models. Multiple, repetitive production lines, refusing to phase out non-competitive models or adapt to consumer wants despite getting lapped by foreign competitors such as Toyota.

As for the healthcare aspect, considering how much is available in terms of medical needs and how many old people there are now compared to ten, fifteen, twenty years ago, OF COURSE costs will go up! Larger customer base needing drugs, and more input costs to develop new medicines. Yes, people paid less for drugs twenty years ago. They also died sooner.

I don't like 9% annual increases in health care costs, but with the number of old people, ill people, and "ill" people (i.e. obesity or self-induced health problems) combined with ongoing R & D for new drugs, treatments, and preventive measures, it's due to happen, and the costs have to come somewhere.

I don't like Part D too much either. Any expansion of entitlement programs isn't going to thrill me. But if you want to talk savings for the average consumer, it actually has been saving quite a bit. Does a few hundred dollars makes a difference, or a thousand? Yes, any way you look at it, whether it's you saving the thousand or the budget analyst looking at that thousands multiplied by millions of people.

Unemployment is low? True. But consider how many people in this new economy have dropped out of the job market, were never included in the figures to begin with, or are under-employed. With this shift to a service based economy and the outsourcing of our traditional jobs, I'd argue that a good part of the work force is under-employed. Another good chuck is forced to work 2 jobs merely to get by at the standard of living that used to exit based on 1 income. Again, all that isn't reflected in those figures.

Yes, because the SEVEN MILLION jobs that have been created in the last six years are all burger-flippers at McDonald's. Getting the talking point from CNN doesn't help. Adding 100,00 jobs each month for a year-plus doesn't amount to much, I guess.

Wages have risen 4-5% a year for the last few years as well, compared 2-2.5% inflation.

Full employment is generally regarded as 5%. Has been for years, until the last few. It's sat at 4.2-4.7% for a very long time. Only 13 states are currently above 5% - IN, MA, AR, NJ, KY, OH, WA, OR, WV, SC, AK, MI, MS.

Georgia is 4.5%. New York is 4.4%. Heck, Florida's near the top, at a 3.2% rate!

As for folks not being counted, that statistic has not changed. It is still unemployed workers/total workers. The denominator's risen, but the statistic has fallen. The numerator, in all likelihood, has not changed or changed by only a fraction.

Courtesy of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, unemployed person fell from 7.4 MM a year ago to 6.7 MM now. The number of people unemployed for more than 27 weeks fell by 189,000 in the last month alone. But again, they're not being counted.

More people working, making on average more money, and more in real wages compared to inflation. But remember, it's a jobless recovery...if you discount the seven million jobs created.

Housing market? Been strong. But that began in the mid 1990s. Reflection of interest rates and very cyclical. All signs point towards a correction beginning now.

The correction has been under way for several months, and should continue through winter. I wouldn't want to continue to see a red-hot housing market. Again, OF COURSE less people are buying houses with rates higher. Folks don't want to throw money away if they don't have to. That's called common sense. I wouldn't even call it "housing woes". Yes, it's cyclical. Is it something to worry about? No.

And, it actually began in 2001 when Greenspan slashed interest rates WAY too low, all the way to 1%. If I could have bought a house at a 1% overnight rate, I would have. Of course it seems slower compared to one, two three years ago. Most people don't want to pay a higher rate, and a lot of potential buyers bought when rates were lower. When rates begin to drop again next year, it will pick up, as will re-financing of first mortgages at lower rates. I'll guarantee it's underway by Summer 2007.

Then look at all the major industry consolidation over the past decade. Banking, utilities, communications, and travel come to mind. Sure - those things all help Wall St in the short term. But they're gonna hurt Main St in the long term. We haven't taken the hit there that's sure to come. I'll remind you of this in a few years when AT&T is once again the national phone company.

There will never be another Bank of the United States. If there were, we would be it. It won't happen. Utilities? No. Travel? Darn, the overpriced, poor-quality airlines are going under. Boo hoo. I'm not going to feel bad because Delta's model isn't working but Continental's is. That's business. Well-run companies thrive, and poorly run companies find themselves in Chapter 11.

As for AT&T/Bellsouth - well, it was broken up in an interesting example of judicial activism 22 years ago. Besides, with technological development (VoIP, for one) and other localized services, cellular services, bundled carriers, there is still a LOT more competition than 25 years ago.

Next consider the high cost of fuel. You told us not that long ago it would continue to drop and drop based on all these new findings and supplies. It hasn't. Like I said earlier, a new floor was found during Bush's tenure and that floor is now being well reflected by the traders. I'm paying $2.20 here in Florida. That's about the national average. And it's also about what we were paying this time last year. That means during the Bush years, our fuel cost (adjusted for rises/falls due to seasonal conditions) rose about $1 per gallon. Some non-existent inflation.

I filled up Saturday for $1.86/gallon. I've long thought the value should be between $1.50 and $2 locally, based on state taxes, government policy and foreign issues. If you look at the price of oil over the last forty years in current dollars, you'll see two spikes. One is the late 1970's. The other was 2005. Both times, it returned to the normal range. It's done so this time.

As for supply - I'll just link to this article again. Technological developments are leading to quite a few more sources of oil that won't keep us as reliant on foreign sources. I'm pretty sure that as much as FIFTEEN BILLION BARRELS OF OIL is pretty significant.

Factor in continued development of alternative energy (LNG, coal, even ethanol) and that's progress. The internal combustion engine was not invented overnight. Neither was a hybrid's fuel cell.

I suppose we could return to government price controls. After all, it worked quite well under Carter, right?

Finally, getting back to the original point, retailers are not doing balls-to-the-wall business anymore. Sure, they're still doing ok. But the White House would have you believe things are a lot better than "ok." Wal-Mart's numbers were just down. If they're down, you know others are feeling it too. So these businesses must rely on Christmas shopping and the extended Christmas season to make the sales they need. And that's why you see Santa at the mall on November 5th. It's no accident.

Most retailers are doing quite well, thank you very much. They don't need an extended Christmas season. Black Friday is still Black Friday. Did Walmart have a knockout 3Q? No, but they still had growth even if it was only 0.5%. But competitors did pretty well. Target? 3.9%. Apparel? If ANF and LTD are an indication, red-hot. Costco? 4%. JC Penney? 8%. Walmart is getting punished for poor service and value added and consumers are going to competitors, so WMT doesn't see growth, it competitors get the growth. That's not a problem. That's how business works.

I think you need to spend a few more nights at the Holiday Inn Express. Try the CinnaBons. They're quite good.

In the meantime, if you made it to the end, you may have noticed that the Dow topped 12100 again, and, doggone it, almost every indicator looks very strong.

But again, nothing good has happened. I guess numbers really don't mean anything.

From the department of Bad-Assedness

Tonight, while watching football, I started playing in a qualifying event on Absolute Poker. It was a smaller field than I'm normally used to, but that's just fine with me.

Top 2 paid out. Second got $120. First got an entry to the $100,000 weekly tournament worth $216.

I did poorly early on, and fell from the opening of 1500 down to about 600. I spiked a King to double up. Close call #1.

I moved up to 3000, and put someone all-in. I flipped up my A-A, against 8-8. I got hit with an 8 and went down to 480 as my chips went to the table jerk. I started building back up again, and moved back to 1500 with about half the field gone.

I kept building my stack to 5000, thanks to getting A-A and K-K on consecutive hands.

With 5 players left, I take a hit that knocks me all the way down to 1800 chips, second-lowest. I turned into an even MORE aggressive player, and got up to about 3000 before hitting a double up with a set of Jacks. Close call #3.

Finally, I amassed enough to be almost even with all the other players at the table, except the table jerk who had about half the chips in play. I knocked out the other 3 players, and took on the jerk heads-up. I was still down 60-40.

After about an hour of online play and trash-talking, I finally busted the other guy with Kings full, for a first-place finish and an entry into the $100,000 Guarantee/Bounty tournament. At least the top 54 will pay out. First prize is a minimum of $25,000.

It was a thoroughly satisfying beatdown.

So, if it's Saturday after 4:30 PM, I'll be slightly busy. I'll spend the first half of the day moving the office downstairs, cleaning, doing laundry, and fertilizing the yard for the winter (along with any other chores we think of by then) and the second half trying to firmly establish a second profession.

Of course, if I've finished moving everything (including the computer) then I'll be playing with either Toy Story, Finding Nemo, or Dumbo on the set in the background. Not many people push all-in to Disney tunes.

Given my recent run of good luck online and in live games, I'll take my chances and hope for the best.

A loose excuse

From Card Player:

Margolis signs with Tropical Poker

The most “downloaded” person on the Internet is once again making some noise. The ultra-beautiful Cindy Margolis and her agents at Poker Royalty announced today that she has signed a major player-representation deal with Tropical Poker. Margolis will represent the Tropical Poker brand in all of her press, interviews, poker events and appearances, including the 2007 World Series of Poker.

I've never heard of Tropical Poker. I'm not sure how good of a site it is. THough I would imagine anyone sitting at a table with her might be a bit, um, distracted.

All I know is that this allows me to link to pics for her appearance in Playboy next month, and that you SHOULD NOT CLICK on it if you are at work. Definitely not safe for work.

Have a Happy Monday.

UPDATE: OK, fine, I can post the cover. That seems safe. Nothing else, though. I don't want that kind of traffic.

Too Damn Early

I took Alex to the mall nearby yesterday, as we had to get a couple of items and I figured it would just be easier to go to the mall, let him run a little in the wide open spaces, so that he could come home and fall asleep.

Well, we're walking through the mall, and he sees something and tried to just TAKE OFF running towards it. I stop him in time and pull him back from the rope he has already crossed, telling him he could look down from upstairs.

What was he so excited about?

He saw Santa Claus, set up and sitting in the middle of the mall, in front of Macy's, with kids coming up to see him.

I think it's getting JUST a little crazy when we are in full-force Christmas season when we've just had Halloween and haven't even reached Election Day or Veterans' Day, let alone Thanksgiving.

I think soon we'll start seeing Christmas advertising right after Labor Day. It's getting that obscene.

Nice gig!

Here's one story that sticks out today:

Chelsea Clinton is moving to work at a hedge fund.

Nice work, if you can get it. It's just hard to believe that the daughter of a former Democratic President will have more in common with these two guys.....






"Greed, for lack of a better word, is good. Greed is right. Greed works. Greed clarifies, cuts through, and captures the essence of the evolutionary spirit. Greed, in all of its forms -- greed for life, for money, for love, knowledge -- has marked the upward surge of mankind."

Enjoy running with the bulls, I guess.

Referrals

I found this site a while back, called Poker Source Online.

It is a site that contains a lot of information about various poker sites, as well as bonuses from PSO for trying out initial sites on top of any site bonuses given out.

I've now set myself up as a referrer on PSO, because it's a prett good site and the promotions are fairly easy to clear of you have a modicum of skill.

The three main promotions are for free poker gifts, free poker money (which is great if you're trying to build a bankroll from $0.00 or close to it), and free rakeback. Rakeback entitles the player to a partial refund of rake fees paid to the site - essentially, cash back for your play even if you utterly, totally suck.

Poker Source Online
Free Poker Gifts
Free Money
Rakeback Program

Poker Source Online recently passed the 100,000 member mark.

They also have monthly freerolls for PSO members. The most recent was on Ultimate Bet, with a prize pool of $5,000 and almost everyone who attended getting a piece of the prize pool.

It's a good deal, no matter your level of skill or experience.

UPDATE: I also added the little click-through advertisement on the sidebar by the blogroll.

Time to make a call

I cannot WAIT for Nov. 9, when this election will be pretty much over save any runoffs in weird states like Louisiana. I'm assuming it'll go into the wee hours of the 8th so the 9th would be the first full day of rest from a barrage of ads.

In the meantime, this may be the October Surprise folks have been looking for. It's not even from one party trying to get one over. It's just foot-in-mouth disease at its finest, courtesy of the 2004 standard-bearer.



He tried to deflate it today, but this is gathering too much steam.

Somewhere, Rahm Emanuel is hanging John Kerry in effigy, for going against the playbook of shut-the-hell-up-and-don't-say-anything.

Great idea, trashing the troops one week before the election. That'll REALLY sit well in the Rust Belt, South, Southwest, Midwest, and everywhere else except NY and MA. Heck, you might encourage GOP wins in Connecticut if you keep up the good work.

Smart, nuanced, tough.

Time to make the final prediction. I'd said the Senate would be 52-46-2 for the GOP. I'm adding Allen into the total now to make it 53-45-2 for a total net loss of 2 seats for the GOP. I know the numbers aren't there for Santorum in a lot of polls, but I think they have had too much of a margin of error lately to be reliable.

As for the House, I think this is going to shift a LOT of races once local candidates get ads together to throw the Kerry albatross around Democratic candidates' necks. I'd said it would flip but be no more than 5 seats.

GOP 221, DEM 214. GOP loses 9 seats but keeps control. Some races are going to be lost, mostly in Ohio and New York, but I think a lot of other races will start trending GOP and flip over when it's time to cast votes. Even Connecticut.

As I won't be in class, I'll be able to liveblog and update when results come in. I'm not starting at 7:01, though, unlike MSNBC and CBS will probably do ("With 0% reporting, we report the Democrats have won every race.") I'll have a lot of links up to SOS websites instead, because I would rather max out my bandwidth and drive everyone in the house crazy myself with 50 updates an hour rather than have the TV drive us crazy and not know for sure.

That's just how I roll.

It's FAAAANN-TASTIC!

NBA Season starts tonight with Suns-Lakers and Bulls-Heat. Not a bad way to start the season.

While listen to awful morning radio this morning, I heard that the Hawks will be using a new slogan this year. Because that's been their problem for the last ten years.

The slogan?

"Welcome to the Highlight Factory."

Look, they've got some good young players. Joe Johnson and J-Smooth and Salim Stoudamire are a good core. But this is still the youngest team in the NBA, so while they may improve on last year's 26-56 mark, I don't think they'll be cracking 40 wins this year. 30-35 wins, maybe. But not much more. Will they compete for a spot in the playoffs? IN the East, a sub-500 record might still get a team in, but again, this team is too damn young.

Oh, and Marvin Williams is out for 8 weeks. That doesn't help too much, since the could have had Chris Paul in that draft. Can't afford both inexperience and injuries.

Click here for Hotlanta Hawks blog.

Waking the neighbors?

Attack of the Russian hands and Roman fingers.....

"Sexsomniacs" puzzle medical researchers

While sleepwalking affects two to four percent of adults, sexsomnia is not thought to be as common a problem, according to Nik Trajanovic, a researcher at the sleep and alertness clinic at Canada's Toronto Western Hospital.

Wait.....it's a problem?

"On rare occasions you have stories of people liking it better than waking sex."

Guess it's not a big problem. Unless, you know, you don't get that big problem somewhere when you are waking up.

H/t Ace.

Happy Halloween Top 10

I was catching up on podcasts from Bluff Radio, and they had a guest host named Joanna Krupa on Sept. 27 (I know, I'm way behind). As a sign of how old and out of it I'm getting, I'd never heard of her before aside from being affiliated with Titan Poker (which has since left the U.S. - bastards)

I went to check out her MySpace page given out during the broadcast about 83 different times. Well, now I know why she's bing used for publicity! How saw is it that I don't know who this is?

I did find this top 10 list on the page. Besides, a cheesecake link and pic never hurt anyone. It's funny, so I'm re-posting it. I guess it means I'm more interested in recycled humor at this point in life than the alternative, or that I don't pay attention to anything whatsoever that doesn't happen outside my house.

TOP 10 REASONS WHY TRICK OR TREATING IS BETTER THAN SEX

10. You are guaranteed to get at least a little something in the sack.

9. If you get tired, you can wait 10 minutes and go at it again.

8. The uglier you look, the easier it is to get some.

7. You don't have to compliment the person who gives you some.

6. It's OK when the person you're with fantasizes you're someone else, because you are.

5. Twenty years from now, you'll still enjoy candy.

4. If you don't like what you get, you can always go next door.

3. It doesn't matter if the kids hear you moaning and groaning.

2. Less guilt the morning after.

AND THE #1 REASON...

1. You can do the whole neighborhood.

Now that the funny is done, here's the pics to brighten your day more, and another link. You want anything heavier, find it yourself. Gotta keep it a little tame.
Happy Halloween.

Disturbing

I just saw a promo for a new movie.

The movie is called "Deck the Halls."

Wait......



Wait.......




Wait.......




WHAT THE HELL IS A CHRISTMAS MOVIE COMING OUT???!? IT'S OCTOBER FOR CRISSAKES!!! HALLOWEEN HASN'T EVEN HAPPENED YET! WHY AM I SEEING THIS PROMOTION FOR A TURD OF A CHRISTMAS MOVIE IN FRICKIN OCTOBER??!?!!?!??

Thanks. I feel better.

Time to schedule my vacation

2007 WSOP to start June 1, Main Event to start July 17.

With New Orleans' circuit event finishing on May 24, that doesn't leave a whole lot of time in between the two. Then again, if you've got enough to blow on every buyin for the event, you're probably not too concerned with cost and time. It's still two months from circuit event to main event, so if you're just doing that event it's a pretty good amount of time in between.

I wonder how reduced the field will be next year with PartyPoker's pullout.

Dark foreboding

I was watching football this weekend. Big surprise.

Alex was watching with me. Again, big surprise. He loves it. Whenever he sees it, he gets very excited, though he's still calling it "Bevo" so we all know which college team he loves to see.

Well, we were watching Baltimore and New Orleans on Sunday. Early in the first quarter, Jamal Lewis fumbles, and the Saints recover.

Alex gets very excited, stands up, and says to me, in a nice loud voice, "WHO DAT, Daddy, WHO DAT?"

Our jaws DROPPED to the floor. We've had on a few Saints games this year, but I would have thought it very difficult to pick up on Who Dat during the games. And I have not been trying to raise a Saints fan. Life's hard enough as is without adding the traditional Aints.

Who Dat? Who Dat? Who Dat Say Gonna Beat Dem Saints?

Baltimore, dat who. 35-22.

The Saints are still 5-2, though, and tied with the Falcons for the NFC South lead. They play each other Nov. 26, 4 weeks from now. They could be playing not just for the dividion, but for a bye if they both go in at 8-3 or better. It could happen.

Hungry

I thought New York was supposed to be progressive and hip. Banning trans-fats? What a lovely town.

I'll have to think about this on my way for some potato chips and fried chicken. Or maybe barbecue.

Mmmmmmmm..........

If this were tried anywhere south of the Mason-Dixon line, there would be rioting in the streets.

Whoop-de-damn-do

Looks like St. Louis won the World Series Friday night.

Whoopee.

The St. Louis Cardinals, with all of 84 wins during the regular season.

Honestly, Game 5 was the only game I watched. The only reason I watched it is because it happened to be on during a game, and I was more concerned with my chip stack and slow-playing A-A to take a bunch of chips than how many errors the Tigers racked up in Game 5 (I think they had three errors?) When the most interesting personality is Kenny Rogers, it can't be a good series.

Given all of the other storylines of the season, the Cardinals were the absolute worst team to have in the Series. I haven't seen the ratings numbers yet but I'd imagine they would be the lowest in quite a long time, if not the lowest ever.

At least it's over with, just in time for the NFL and CFB seasons to really get going. I was a LOT more psyched seeing Oregon State pull off the upset over USC, and watching the Colts-Broncos game today, than I was for the World Series. Heck, the Panthers and Cowboys holds more interest for me, and I don't even care after dispatching my opponent by 36 points in FFL!

It's going to be very dull when February rolls around and there's no more football. In the meantime, I'm eating it up.

UPDATE: I was right on those ratings. 10.1 for the Series, down 9% from last year's abysmal ratings. Apparently I wasn't the only one with attention diverted elsewhere. Game 1 received an 8.0 rating.

I did not know the World Series would start on a Tuesday next year. Great...now they can play to November every year! Whoopee.

Better buy those natural gas stocks

I just looked out my window on the 10th Floor to see if it was raining.

I did see rain.

I also saw little white flakes coming down from the sky intermingled with the rain.

That's not supposed to happen here, at this time. granted, it might be due to altitude, but still.....

SNOW. IN OCTOBER. IN ATLANTA.

Somehow, I think this might be a very cold winter. Can't imagine why. Which means a lot of high gas bills and your investment opportunity of the day.

Lucking out

I was worried that my current class would be a bit too difficult to handle at this time, with a new baby arriving the same time as a final presentation and a final exam.

The final presentation is to be a firm analysis, done as a group presentation to the firm's board.

We were divided up into industries, from which we would then pick a firm to model, analyze, and present.

If I had been picked for any other sector, I would have probably had to drop the class because I would need to do a lot more work. As it is, I lucked out.

Oil.

Because I have never written about it before.

Sometimes, things just work out better than you hope.

The firm we have chosen, for whom we are preparing an analysis?

Chevron. ExxonMobil and BP have been done so much that we went with the last major American component of Big Oil.

Hopefully, the vast majority of the writing will be done well before it's time to go on leave - since I am not sure if I will be around for presenting, I'm willing to do a lot of the writing and research. Either way, we'll see how it goes. I'm just glad it's something with which I'm already pretty familiar given previous writings and research for work and for personal reasons.

As interesting as Beer would have been, I'm quite glad to be in oil. Then again, given the surge in stock prices, I'd imagine a lot of people are happy to be in Big Oil. Heck, CVX hit a 52-week high today. Nice timing.

Balancing everything in life

Read this article, figured I'd link to it on Conservative Match. It's about balancing everything in life - work, home, travel, more work.

I also realized that, one month from yesterday, my leave will begin from work. It will be an interesting but good time. No, I won't be getting any sleep. Yes, I'll probably be worrying about anything that isn't absolutely perfect. But most importantly, it will be good to spend more than a couple hours each evening at home. On class nights, I'm not getting home until 10:30 when it is past a little one's bedtime.

For the most part I enjoyed being on leave a couple years ago with Alex, so hopefully this will bring about the same enjoyment and happiness.

It'll be good R & R. I know changing ten diapers a day and not sleeping more than a couple hours at a time isn't the traditional vacation, but it'll still be a good time to be, for lack of a better word, happy.

That way after eight weeks, when I do return to work, it'll take me a while to get stressed out again.

In other good news, I got my first grades. Two B's, though one may become an A once I finish a work project - hopefully it will be two good results from one project!

Lasting Peace

Remember the strike of 1994?

Remember the almost-strike in 1999?

Remember the agreement reached hours before a deadline in 2002?

Well, there's no close call this time around. The MLB Players Union and league owners reached a five-year extension of the current Collective Bargaining Agreement.

Even more amazing, the extension was reached well in advance of the Dec. 19 deadline, and without any noticeable acrimony on either side.

In other news, subterranean dominions held under satanic might saw temperatures in the mid-30's as frost warnings went into effect for the entire netherworld region.

Merger Mania

In the continued waking of the online gaming bill, Absolute Poker and Ultimate Bet have announced plans to merge.

These are two of the better sites on the web, and also are two of the sites that have pledged their doors to remain open to American customers.

This merger will create the second or third largest poker site on the web, behind PokerStars and very close to Full Tilt Poker. I'm not quite sure how account consolidation would be handled as I would imagine many people would have accounts on both sites.

For more details, click here for the article from Cardplayer.

The consolidation is under way.

And if you happen to live in Arizona, click here to redirect to Jim Pederson's website. He is running against Jon Kyl who was one of the chief sponsors of the ban. Make a statement, and contribute or volunteer.

Joke of the day

Q: What is differenat about the Braves', Yankees', and Mets' seasons?



A: Tee times.

OK, joke's over - in all seriousness, that's a crappy way to lose a game and a series. But two things are sticking out in my mind:

1) I can somewhat understand why Heilman came out for the 9th, but I'm wondering why Wagner wasn't brought in for the 9th. Given Willie's tenure under Torre, and Torre's frequent usage of Rivera in the 9th of tie games, I was surprised that did not happen.

2) I really thought the Mets were going to pull off the rally in the bottom of the ninth. That being said, how does Carlos Beltran not take the bat off his shoulder for strike three? How could he not have expected the curveball, when Floyd just struck out on it a couple batters before? How could he not be protecting the plate with a two-strike count, especially in that situation? Bewildering.

The other shoe has dropped

Neteller to cease transactions in the U.S. in July 2007.

Given that this is the foremost method of payment for poker players, this is huge. Neteller had announced last week that it was not planning on ceasing business, so this statement is a big turnaround.

Several poker rooms, such as Full Tilt, Ultimate Bet, Poker Stars, Doyle's Room, and Absolute Poker have announced their intention to continue servicing American customers, while others, such as Pokerroom, Party Poker, and Sun Poker have decided to flee with their tails between their legs, like cowards, thanks the thought police represented by Jon Kyl and Bill Frist who have decided to strip away personal freedoms at home while our soldiers defend them abroad.

At least Neteller has done one better than Firepay, which announced an immediate pullout. Neteller is probably thinking that it is possible for changes to be made before the full 270-day period expires, which is why they aren't planning on any changes until then.

So get it in while you can...and if you've got $20 in the till, use it to join the Poker Players' Alliance. Yes, you can deduct it right from your Neteller account, or even PayPal.

A Wish is a Dream your heart makes

Do you live in Atlanta?

Do you like touching the lives of millions of children?

Do you want to be a performer?

Do you want to dress up in tortuous Florida heat and walk around a theme park all day?

Well, then, this is for you: Friday, October 20: Disney Character auditions

Yes, you can get dressed up in a happy princess outfit.

Or, you could be stuck in this:

Nature hike, in a heavy costume, or traipse around a castle.

Fun.

This week's sign that my brain has disappeared

Last night, I headed down to Georgia State to start the second mini-mester. I have one class this term, and I'd printed out the articles, syllabus, and all other items that would be needed.

I got there and logged in to determine what room the class was in, because I had not remembered to check it at work with it being such a busy day.

I looked.....and my class was not there. No Tuesday MBA 7030 class on the registration menu.

I clicked over into my weekly schedule, and found the class and module and time....under Wednesday night.

Dee-dee-dee.

Three weeks to go

Thankfully, I am spared the majority of political ads in Georgia, as there are no Senate races and GA-CD-11 is not a competitive race at the moment. The only "race" we have is for Governor, and Sonny Perdue is trouncing Mark Taylor by 24 points - not a surprise, considering Taylor has no ideas and his son did kill someone.

In lieu of that, though, many other readers are getting bludgeoned each hourly by advertisements, and are probably at the point of throwing a hatchet through the television if one more crappy ad shows up.

The House could go either way at this point. The GOP could lose anywhere from five to twenty-five seats. Beyond that seems a little difficult, thanks to the incumbent protection act, and I don't think anyone gives the GOP a chance in hell of a net pickup. The GOP will probably pick up 1 in Georgia, at least, thanks to Mac Collins, and possibly two depending on CD-12's 2004 rematch.

Nationally in the House? I don't know. I'm not good enough to handle 435 races. Try here (DEM 222, GOP 213), or here (DEM 208, GOP 209, Undecided 18), or here (who has no frickin idea on the House). Basically, all over the map. I think it will flip but it'll be a slim margin (maybe two seats) but that will be enough to convince Pelosi, Rangel et al to go waaaaay overboard over the next two years, which will backfire in 2008 on the national, state, and local level. I back that up with absolutely nothing except a semi-educated guess.

It seems a bit easier to get an idea of the Senate, though.

GOP: 40 not running
DEM: 27 not running

Of the 33 races remaining, many are safe.

GOP: 40 + Lugar, Snowe, Lott, Hutchison, Hatch, Ensign, Thomas (WY) = 47
DEM: 27 + Feinstein, Carper, Akaka, Drunk Teddy, Conrad, Clinton, Kohl, Byrd, Sanders (I), Nelson (FL), Bingaman = 38

47-37-1 with 15 races left. The Filthy Fifteen. Blech.

AZ: Kyl (R) - Kyl is eading by single digits, and can't get over 50%, but there should be enough to get re-elected. Supporting deployment of even more troops to Iraq, which could play either way with Arizona voters. Considering his enthusiastic support of the online gaming ban, I'm not too thrilled with him going back, but it'll probably happen. GOP HOLD - 48-37-1

MD: Open (D) - Paul Sarbanes' old seat. A Steele win here over Cardin would be sweet and cause liberals to have heart attacks on the spot. A man can dream. It's going to be tough to make up a 9% deficit in a few weeks, but this is an odd case of a black conservative Republican against a white liberal Democrat. Cardin's floating around 50% in polling data, and it doesn't seem likely that all the undecideds will flock to Steele or that polling sata would be that far off the mark. It'll be a lot closer than 9 points, but not close enough. DEM HOLD - 48-38-1

MN: Open (D) - Open in name only, every poll shows at least a 15-point lead for Amy Blobuchar (D). A sad GOP showing in a race that was supposed to be competitive and even a possible flip. DEM HOLD - 48-39-1

NE: Nelson (D) - See Minnesota - otherwise, a race as boring as the state itself. At least the Cornhuskers are ranked. DEM HOLD - 48-40-1

MI: Stabenow (D) - How she now has a double-digit lead is beyond amazing given the lousy economic conditions in Michigan. Lost jobs? No growth? No problem! I can't believe this will be a DEM HOLD - 48-41-1

WA: Cantwell (D) - Mike McGavick is down by an average of 8 points, but this state always gets kooky to the left on Election Day and an average of only 6% are listed as "undecided". Probably not happening. DEM HOLD - 48-42-1

MO: Talent (R) - This race is a virtual dead heat, but one other statistic will decide this race. Talent has about $2.5 million left in the bank. Claire McCaskill has about $250,000. Money talks. GOP HOLD - 49-42-1

TN: Open (R) - Thank God Bill Frist is gone, just in time to re-take control of HCA. The race between Corker and Ford has been back and forth. Once again, follow the money - $3.9 million raised for Corker in the 3rd quarter, $2.1 million raised for Ford. GOP HOLD - 50-42-1

What will flip?

MT: Burns (R) - I'm amazed this race is as close as it is, but I don't think Burns will escape. The biggest Abramoff casualty. DEM PICKUP - 50-43-1

VA: Allen (R) - Speaking of crappy ads, what a holy mess this race has become! In his next attempt to show voters he's not sexist, George Allen will probably wear a dress. His presidential campaign is certainly dead, and his Senate career probably is too. Macaca that. DEM PICKUP - 50-44-1

OH: Dewine (R) - Incompetency in DeWine's campaign and the Ohio GOP will drown the entire slate of candidates in Ohio - yes, that means Kenneth Blackwell too. So much for the rise of the black conservative, at least for this year. DEM PICKUP - 50-45-1

RI: Chafee (R) - RINO v. liberal. Good ridance to Chafee who wasn't worth a damn to the GOP anyway. No one is consistently over 50% but every poll seems to favor Whitehouse. Too bad Laffey couldn't win the primary so that there would be a difference in the candidates. DEM PICKUP - 50-46-1

CT: Lieberman (I) - Congratulations, Kos, by kicking out Lieberman you've now made it very difficult to attain 51 seats in the Senate. Hope the primary victory was worth it. A double-digit lead in almost every poll means a likely IND PICKUP 50-46-2

NJ: Menendez (D) - This race is now within the margin of error and it's too late to pull a switch like Torricelli and Lautenberg in 2004. Some polls actually show Kean ahead. Can he make up 4% in 3 weeks? With another $500,000 from the NRSC and by out-fundraising Menendez over the last few months, it could happen. Culture of corruption, anyone? GOP PICKUP - 51-46-2 and a retention of the Senate.

The Shocker:

PA: Santorum (R) - Left for dead so many times we've lost count, Santorum has been killing Casey in every debate, killing him in advertising, and killing him on the stump. This race is down to single digits and is closing fast. In a shocking turnaround from earlier this year, Santorum wins for a GOP HOLD - 52-46-2.

A loss of three seats in the Senate, but the GOP retains control. Welcome to gridlock. Enjoy your stay for the next two years.

Of course, if these estimates are incorrect, I will do the same as always and assume no responsibility whatsoever.

I was only off by a little bit

I wrote in August about how PCV/ST was on the selling block, and that it was expected to be sold for over $3 million.

Well, it turns out I was undervaluing the property a bit.

$5.4 B.

Yes, that's right, FIVE BILLION, FOUR HUNDRED MILLION DOLLARS.

With about 11,000 units in the Peter Cooper Village and Stuyvesant Town Complex, that comes out to almost half a million dollars PER APARTMENT.

This bid was $900 Million higher than a bid submitted by the Tenants' Association. Unfortunately, a lot of people are going to be getting non-renewal notices in the next year as conversion will most assuredly proceed from rented apartments to condominiums.

MetLife will make approximately $3 Billion after taxes and 60 years of ownership.

To my former neighbors (some of which may have linked from the forums) - I'm sorry this has happened. We all knew it would happen someday, with the way the city has changed. My family had talked about it happening for at least 15 years.

Unfortunately, someday finally happened. The clock struck midnight.

Stupidity at work

Did you know that Jackass Number Two has made over $68 million so far, as of Sunday? Me neither. Of course, I'm also expecting the Borat movie to be a huge hit when it opens next month because, well, there aren't many blockbusters or highly anticipated movies to compete against.

In that manner, I present to you...

The 2006 Darwin Award Winners:

Darwin Awards go to people, usually men, who actually performed the following human acts:

WINNER
1. When his 38-caliber revolver failed to fire at his intended victim during a hold-up in Long Beach, California, would-be robber James Elliot did something that can only inspire wonder. He peered down the barrel and tried the trigger again. This time it worked.....

HONORABLE MENTIONS

2. The chef at a hotel in Switzerland lost a finger in a meat cutting machine and, after a little hopping around, submitted a claim to his insurance company. The company expecting negligence, sent out one of its men to have a look for himself. He tried the machine and lost a finger. The chef's claim was approved.

3. A man who shoveled snow for an hour to clear a space for his car during a blizzard in Chicago returned with his Vehicle to find a woman had taken the space. Understandably, he shot her.

4. After stopping for drinks at an illegal bar, a Zimbabwean bus driver found that the 20 mental patients he was supposed to be transporting from Harare to Bulawayo had escaped. Not wanting to admit his incompetence, the driver went to a nearby bus stop and offered everyone waiting there a free ride. He then delivered the passengers to the mental hospital, telling the staff that the patients were very excitable and prone to bizarre fantasies. The deception wasn't discovered for 3 days.

5. An American teenager was in the hospital recovering from serious head wounds received from an oncoming train. When asked how he received the injuries, the lad told police that he was simply trying to see how close he could get his head to a moving train before he was hit.

6. A man walked into a Louisiana Circle-K, put a $20 bill on the counter, and asked for change. When the clerk opened the cash drawer, the man pulled a gun and asked for all the cash in the register, which the clerk promptly provided. The man took the cash from the clerk and fled, leaving the $20 bill on the counter. The total amount of cash he got from the drawer was $15. (If someone points a gun at you and gives you money, is a crime committed?)

7. Seems an Arkansas guy wanted some beer pretty badly. He decided that he'd just throw a cinder block through a liquor store window, grab some booze, and run. So he lifted the cinder block and heaved it over his head at the window. The cinder block bounced back and hit the would-be thief on the head, knocking him unconscious. The liquor store window was made of Plexiglas. The whole event was caught on videotape.

8. As a female shopper exited a New York convenience store, a man grabbed her purse and ran. She called 911 immediately, and the woman was able to give them a detailed description of the snatcher. Within minutes, the police apprehended the snatcher. They put him in the car and drove back to the store. The thief was then taken out of the car and told to stand there for a positive ID. To which he replied, "Yes, officer, that's her. That is the lady I stole the purse from."

9. The Ann Arbor News crime column reported that a man walked into a Burger King in Ypsilanti, Michigan, at 5 a.m., flashed a gun, and demanded cash. The clerk turned him down because he said he couldn't open the cash register without a food order. When the man ordered onion rings, the clerk said they weren't available for breakfast. The man, frustrated and furious, walked away.

CONSOLATION PRIZE
10. When a man attempted to siphon gasoline from a motor home parked on a Seattle street, he got much more than he bargained for. Police arrived at the scene to find a very sick man curled up and vomiting, on the ground next to the vehicle. A police spokesman said that the man admitted trying to steal gasoline. He had plugged his siphon hose into what he thought was the gas tank, and began sucking to create a vacuum before transferring it to his car. Only problem was, he'd put the hose into the motor home's sewage tank by mistake. The owner of the vehicle declined to press charges, saying that it was the best laugh he'd ever had.

Paraskavedekatriaphobia

RUN FOR YOUR LIVES!!!! IT'S FRIDAY THE 13TH!!!!!

AAAAAGGGGHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

OK, glad we got that out of the way.

Actually, Friday the 13th has always been a good day in my family. Hopefully good things will happen today. It's been a pretty rough week, so that would be nice.

Anyway, in honor of today, here's a little amusement for you.

Gaming update

Here's an interesting article from CardPlayer.com regarding Bill Frist's recent act of cowardice regarding online gaming and what it means for American players.

Figured I would pass it along.

As of now, I know Party Poker is shutting down US operations. Other sites are continuing as planned, though I would not prefer to say which ones until after Nov. 7.

I do still believe this ban will be either tossed out in court or made legal via future legislation. It won't be easy, though.

Want to know who voted against personal freedom and privacy by voting for this bill in the House? Click here. Vote them out on Nov. 7.

Want to sign a new petition? Click here.

Seclusion

I have never liked finals. I have never liked final projects.

But, that's what this weekend has been about. My first batch of finals is this week. A final exam on Wednesday night, and a presentation on Thursday night.

I've spent about 12 hours this weekend studying and trying to finish other projects for these two courses. Frankly, I'm hoping to get off to a better start in these classes that I did in my undergraduate career.

So, because I have actually been doing real work over the weekend, I haven't posted anything in a few days.

In the meantime, I present a picture from last weekend, when Alex and I went apple-picking. We went to an orchard up in Ellijay, and picked a couple of big bags of apples to bring home. TO my surprise, I can eat these apples - normally I have an allergic reaction to apples bought in the store, but normally to the pesticides and chemicals used. Since these are fresh, no bad reaction.

Sometimes, it's the little things that make you happy.

In Alex's case, it's about amassing a huge bounty of one of his favorite treats.

More surprises

Somehow, I don't think these are the October Surprises Karl Rove had in mind:

Congressman runs ad to apologize for Affair

This might be big, not for this individual house race, but because of its impact on the Santorum-Casey battle. If any more stay home Casey could pull out a win despite his flagging numbers lately.

Which means that not one, but both houses might flip. The House is almost certain to flip, but I'd thought the Senate would not quite change enough.

There's been enough news today (Kean moves further ahead, Steele in dead heat, bad news in MT and PA, economy, dead Al-Qaeda, oil, blah blah) to make me think that I have absolutely NO IDEA what will happen in the Senate. The GOP could lose 6 seats, they could gain 2. I have no idea. It's getting that wacky.

All I know is I won't be able to watch election returns because I will be in class. So I hope someone else does a good job of a running entry and updates.

Big Building go BOOM

For a few months, a demolition company has been taking down the old Wachovia Building which is caddycorner to the Plaza. It's not needed, since the merger with First Union and the transplant of employees up to 10th St.

Last week, we received a notice that Peachtree St. would be shut down Friday afternoon to prepare for the implosion Saturday.

We saw some sort of string quartet Friday afternoon playing somber music and doing what appeared to be some sort of mock funeral for the building.

Thankfully, quite a few people came into the building to tape the implosion Saturday morning - because I was not getting out of bed that early.

Courtesy of my fellow associates and Youtube, the controlled demolition of Wachovia.

Don't say I never gave you nuthin'.

Braves coaches released

In the wake of their first losing season since 1990, the Braves have released Pat Corrales (bench coach) and diminshed the role of bullpen coach Bobby Dews. Third base coach Fredi GOnzalez had already left to manage the Marlins.

Unfortunately, one of the coaches returning is Roger McDowell, after a subpar performance by the Braves' staff last year. The team ERA of 4.60 ranked 17th, tied with Texas.

Texas plays in a bandbox. Turner Field is a pitchers' park. Atlanta's 4.60 ERA placed it behind PITTSBURGH (4.52)!

So, shakeups have begun within the coaching staff. But what about the roster itself?

Offensively, they were not too bad overall. They ranked 5th in MLB in runs scored, 6th in OPS, and were 2nd in HR with 222, behind only the White Sox. They ranked in the middle of the pack in AVG and OBP. Essentially, the offense seemed like an old Earl Weaver team - get on base, not too much speed, and bang the ball out of the park.

Renteria led the team with a .293 average and 17 SB. While he did score 100 runs, he was a bit of a disappointment. He did improve over his Boston numbers, but he needed to get on base more and make things happen.

LaRoche finished with decent numbers overall, but had several fluky plays which cost the Braves wins. He singlehandedly kept the Braves from .500 with a couple of inattentive and stupid plays to cost the 2-3 wins.

Andruw Jones, Franceour, and Chipper Jones performed as well as could be expected. Chipper had great numbers in 110 games, but the season is 162 games. Andruw and Franceour provided the power (with Frenchy nabbing 100 RBI) but didn't on base nearly enough, hitting around .260 apiece. Franceour only had 23 walks, and that needs to severely improve.

McCann was the best of the young crop, putting up .333-24-93 in only his second season. He's still only 22 and could be an All-Star for quite a long time if he keeps this up.

Both of the Jones, though, are still signed to monster contracts, and Chipper's health is an even more obvious problem considering the amount left ot pay him. Andruw will be a free agent after next season in which he is paid $13.5 MM.

Giles keeps having ailments or injuries of one type or another, and his numbers (.262-11-60, 5 SB) were solidly unspectacular for a $4 MM salary. Not bad, but not worth that amount of money, either.

The pitching was an absolute mess. There's just no other way to put it.

There was only one "bright" spot, and he will turn 40 next year. Smoltz went 16-9, with 211 K's, a WHIP under 1.2, and a 3.49 ERA. He could have had 20 wins this year with a decent bullpen that didn't blow so many leads.

Hudson turned in another disappointing year. He is supposed to be the leader of this staff, not a .500 pitcher with an ERA near 5. He walked 79 batters - inexcusable for a ground-ball pitcher in a pitcher's park. I don't know if frequent tweaks and pulls have shot his confidence, but he's not the same pitcher he was in Oakland.

Chuck James was a nice surprise, but missed a third of the season.

All other starters were absolutely horrendous - Sosa, Thomson, Ramirez, and Davies combined for a 13-29 record, a 1.63 WHIP and a 5.65 ERA in 56 starts.

And Mike Hampton missed another entire season. His salary is finally coming off the books, though.

The bullpen? Glad you asked. It did markedly improve after the Braves acquired Bob Wickman from Cleveland, and they have smartly re-signed him for another season already. Reitsma is gone, along with his $3.5 MM salary. Danys Baez will return and could become a serviceable set-up man for Wickman. Villareal might return as well, and hopefully he will not vulture as many wins next year by not allowing all of his inherited runners to score. Beyond those faint hopes - ouch.

So what now?

Hampton and Reitsma's salaries are gone. The Braves may try to trade LaRoche (only making $400K) and Giles for pitching help. Acquiring a #3 or #4 pitcher isn't too far-fetched for those guys, or some decent bullpen help. Chad Bradford, Octavio Dotel,

This would leave openings at 2B, 1B, and OF, assuming no other deals (though it is possible they trade Andruw in the offseason, but I think the Braves would have to be blown away and Andruw's now a 10-5 guy).

Prime free agents include Alfonso Soriano, Mark Mulder, and Barry Zito. Secondary free agent targets include Mark Redman, Jason Schmidt, Scott Williamson, Adam Eaton, Preston Wilson, and Mark Buerhle.

Let's try one from column A and two from Column B. Whaddaya say?

Mash-up time

Time for a change of pace from the dreary posts of late.

Courtesy of Idiotwork.com and ifilm:

Superfriends & Office Space. Friggin' hilarious. 4 minute clip, so beware of the slow connection.

Fracture

I'm glad I'm not the only one who is getting really pissed off about the GOP leadership's recent activities in the Foley mess.

I'm sorry, did I say "activities"? I mean to say "aiding and abetting a pedophile in committing statutory rape".

I don't really care where the news, e=mails, or messages came from or the age. What I do care about is that the behavior was known, and ignored, by the same Speaker of the House who has been an absolutely horrible leader. The same guy who wanted to tell New Orleans to go f*** itself last year.

Lovely guy. It wasn't enough to be a jackass. He had to aid and abet his colleague in the solicitation and possible sexual abuse of minors.

Of course, his counterpart in the Senate also had a great weekend. Started it off by banning online gaming and kept going today with suggesting the Taliban be included in running Afghanistan.

Because that worked out soooooooooo well before.....


Tell me again about the values of Republican leadership and why the hell they should keep Congress? Really, what's the point?

Yes, gas prices are dropping, and yes, economic indicators are getting better. But with leadership selling out their base again and again, eventually there is a point where you say, Enough.

I've had enough. Since I can't vote against Hastert, I can vote against my local representative in GA-11. Besides, given the sponsorship of HR 4411, this isn't too far a leap at this point.

It's time to split my ticket between Congress and other races - I'll still vote for this one and this one, but no straight ticket anymore. I'm tired of being taken for granted and getting kicked in the teeth, from Katrina to Miers to the border to online gaming to dhimmitude.

No musings this week

Since I watched exactly 2 minutes of football this weekend, I can't really write anything this week. I was out on Saturday and Sunday, so football was not in order for me.

I decided it was better to use Sunday to take Alex to an apple orchard in Ellijay. It was one of those places where you pick the apples yourself, fill up a bag, etc. Plus, there was a tiny festival taking place, complete with funnel cake and line dancing. I'm thankful we both found the line dancing equally weird.

Moral of the story - we had lots of fun, he was worn out but happy, and I didn't listen to or watch a lick of football. Didn't really miss it, either.

In the meantime.....we're counting down until UGA-UT on Saturday. That will be a completely different story.

Woof.

Happy day

Well, on Saturday, there was a wedding.

No, not these two. But they attended the reception.

Two friends from Emory got married yesterday downtown by Underground. It was a very nice wedding - and probably the shortest Catholic wedding I have ever attended :)

One good thing (which allowed Alex to attend) was that the reception was held at the new Georgia Aquarium over by Centennial Olympic Park. It opened about a year ago. It is huge, and this was our first trip there.

We all had a blast. The place is HUGE, and awesome. Wow.

Alex spent nearly the entire reception running between the two windows of the ballroom.

This one (there are rays and sharks in the tank, but not in this shot):

And this one:

Of course, we loved it too. The whales were so close that it seemed as though you could pet them. Or let them give you a kiss. The belugas were that playful.

Thankfully, all that running wore us out, so we all fell right asleep as soon as we got home. Since he was so worn out from running around, he slept later, which allowed us to sleep later.

Good times.